The MAGA Crackup Has Begun

Trump’s lawlessness, incoherence, cruelty, and desperation are increasing as we approach a blue wave election that appears increasingly likely to sweep out Republican majorities in the House and Senate, flip numerous governorships, and deliver significant blows to Republicans in state races. Trump has tried everything in his playbook: attempting to sabotage mail-in voting, effectively bribing voters with a ludicrous promise of a $5,000 check if they keep Republicans in power, and traveling to red states to deliver rants intended to pump up his base. 

And yet, his own conduct further undercuts Republicans’ already-dismal election prospects, with Republican candidates straining to run from policies in which they have been complicit (e.g. tariffs, the war, ICE’s reckless blitz).

In the latest Washington Post-ABC poll, his approval hit a new low of 33 percent, with a dismal 22 percent among independents. His handling of the economy has plunged to 28 percent and all the way to 21 percent on affordability (which he says is a hoax). Under Trump, “the Republican Party is worse at 28 points underwater (35% favorable and 63% unfavorable),” while large majorities “call Trump and the Republican Party ‘too extreme’ — 66% and 55%, respectively” (vs. just 36 percent for the Democratic Party). And a key finding: “By a wide margin, Americans prefer that the next Congress be controlled by Democrats, to act as a check on Trump (59%) than by Republicans, to support Trump’s agenda (35%).”

Democrats, understandably, are therefore thrilled Trump keeps insisting voters pretend he is on the ballot. In just the past week, his total capitulation to Russian dictator Vladimir Putin on sanctions relief and his psychotic ramblings out on the stump might instead convince voters Democratic majorities are urgently needed to keep him on a short leash. (His treacherous betrayal of Ukraine and unabashed cheerleading for Putin triggered an unusual bipartisan backlash, demands for investigation, proposals to countermand the diesel bailout, and further questions about his personal and financial motives.)

Trump’s behavior on the campaign trail has only intensified the sense that the country is rudderless, careening from one disaster to another without a sentient leader. “Trump, 80, has used his appearances to muse about animals’ opposition to the second amendment, to call one Republican candidate ‘nerdy,’ and to demonstrate a hitherto unexpressed fascination with ‘asses’ — men’s and babies’, in particular,” The Guardian reported. “Along the way Trump has repeated his lie that 2020 was a rigged election, claimed, falsely, that he has secured $21T in foreign investment in the US, and issued dark warnings about Democrats.”

As happens when a regime is hurtling toward defeat and popular support plummets, the wheels seem to be coming off the already-rickety Trump regime bus. The forced resignation of grifter Kimberly Guilfoyle, revelations about the donors who forked over $330 million for the East Wing destruction/ballroom monstrosity, the firing of disastrously incompetent Katie Zacharia (replete with leaks from insiders disparaging her), and the possible ouster of Chief of Staff Susie Wiles mean the knives are out as Trump flunkies search for scapegoats. (“Staff upheaval is expected as officials brace for a blame game over Republican performance, with some distancing themselves from what they see as a fading political movement,” the Los Angeles Times confirmed.)

Most disastrous for Republicans, Trump’s policies have created the perfect storm. On the economic front, consumer and producer numbers released last week confirm that prices have soared, reminding voters that Trump’s toxic brew of tariffs and soaring energy costs resulting from his calamitous war have made ordinary life unaffordable for millions. (His fiscal trainwreck has contributed to soaring interest rates, raising the potential for stagflation like we saw in the 1970s and ’80s.) Trump’s illegal, reckless war continues to drag down Republican candidates who are forced to defend their acquiescence in this strategic, military, moral, and economic debacle.

Trump can no longer rely on his go-to issue: immigrant fearmongering. His violent, lawless assaults on immigrants have killed scores of people on the streets and in detention, separated families, inflicted economic hardship, and undermined the rule of law, alienating even Republicans. His latest, outrageous effort to deport a political opponent, Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN), laced with racism and devoid of any legal basis for violating the 60-day pre-election moratorium on political-related prosecutions, reflects white nationalists’ desperation and political tone-deafness as they make a single controversial congresswoman into a national political martyr.

While lashing about like a wounded animal, he is also getting slapped down by courts in a wide array of cases (e.g., dismissal with prejudice of the Reflecting Pool prosecution, rejecting demands for state voting roll data, stopping the Kennedy Center threatened shutdown/teardown, complete defeat in the effort to exclude certain news outlets from the White House, the vindication of smeared FEMA employee Mary Comans) as they recognize his lawlessness and express outright fury, as Judge Ana Reyes put it in the East Potomac golf course case, over the Justice Department’s frivolous filings, gamesmanship, and outright defiance of court orders.

The paranoia on the left runs deep, with many insisting Trump is “more dangerous than ever.” But they should not confuse desperation with danger, nor impulsiveness with potency. Though Trump’s nutty rhetoric may intensify and his executive edicts may multiply, democracy forces should refrain from treating him as a political colossus. 

Swinging and missing does not make Trump more powerful; it convinces his congressional allies to distance themselves, judges to forcefully rebuke him, and his former supporters to turn the page. More frequent retreats (e.g., halting public financing for ads, calling off the live-streaming of the Fort Hood murderer’s execution, resuming Starlink connection for Ukraine, firing his spokeswoman) suggest criticism is eroding his resolve.

As Trump’s losses mount and his power drains away, and as both congressional allies and courts deny him deference, Democrats must not let up. Once in power, Democrats must not only seek to reverse policy debacles (e.g., take back tariff authority, reverse Medicaid and SNAP cuts, reinstate Affordable Care Act subsidies, defund ICE) but also pursue every avenue of accountability.

In sum, we are seeing the political death spiral of a regime under the tutelage of a mentally decrepit narcissist. Decisive, overwhelming Democratic wins up and down the ballot can disabuse Republicans of the notion there is any benefit or future in continuing to align themselves with a fascist movement that has done extraordinary damage to our economy, democracy, and social fabric.

The full impact of an election loss of the magnitude we expect will play out over months as regime figures get thrown overboard or run for the hills and surviving Republicans in Congress race to create space between themselves and a failed presidency. For Democrats and all pro-democracy forces, it will be vital to take advantage of the disarray in MAGA ranks to begin reversing policy blunders, holding wrongdoers responsible, and erecting reforms to restore democratic institutions and place our constitutional system on firmer footing.

Meanwhile, Democrats would be wise to echo Trump’s call for voters to pretend Trump is on the ballot. He certainly is — and the country is in desperate need of protection from the mad wannabe king.

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Demonstrators at an Oct. 1. (Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images)