There’s a concept in the law called the “presumption of
regularity” – the idea that, in the absence of evidence to the contrary,
executive branch employees are presumed to have acted in good faith and through
the proper channels in arriving at an outcome. The presumption is typically
applied by the courts in reviewing agency decisions, but the principle can be
applied to how, ideally, we should think about government actions more broadly.
Having worked inside the government, and in the executive
and judicial branches specifically, I have seen firsthand that when it is
operating normally, government servants do, in fact, follow the rules and do
their jobs like they’re supposed to. But the news that Trump’s former national
security advisor, John Bolton, had his home and office searched – and in
particular, the conflicted people and irregular circumstances surrounding it –
has made me realize that we can no longer operate on this presumption. In fact,
there is a lot that feels hinky, as we would say in the FBI, about the Bolton search.
Since the search seems to be related to some stuff that
happened half a decade ago, let’s start at the beginning. Two months after
Bolton left the Trump administration (or was fired, depending on whether you
ask him or Trump) in 2019, he got a deal with Simon & Schuster for a book.
By December of that year, he had a draft manuscript of his memoir, The
Room Where It Happened – the book was critical of Trump and also
bolstered some of the allegations being made against him in his first
impeachment.
Because the book contained Bolton’s accounts of
conversations and observations during his time as Trump’s national security
adviser, he was required to put his manuscript through “prepublication review”
with the NSC, to ensure that it did not contain classified information. He did
so, and went through four months of edits with the Senior Director for Records
and Information Security Management at the National Security Council, Ellen
Knight (a career employee who had been detailed to the NSC from the National
Archives and Records Administration). At the end of that process, she advised
him that the manuscript no longer contained classified information.
However, Bolton never received formal authorization from
the White House to publish his book. In June 2020, John Eisenberg, the Deputy
White House Counsel and Legal Adviser to the NSC, wrote to Bolton and told him
that his book still contained classified information. At that point, though,
Bolton had already sent his manuscript to his publisher. The Trump
administration then sued Bolton, seeking to enjoin him from publishing his
book.
The judge, Royce Lamberth, denied the injunction, finding
that the government could not meet the criteria showing that an injunction
would prevent “irreparable harm” since 200,000 copies of the book had already
been published, noting that “the horse is not just out of the barn – it is out
of the country.” But Judge Lamberth also stated – after reviewing the White
House declarations of the classified material contained in the book – that the
government would likely succeed on the merits, because “Defendant Bolton likely
jeopardized national security by disclosing classified information in violation
of his nondisclosure agreement obligations” and had “exposed his country to
harm and himself to civil (and potentially criminal) liability.”
That’s pretty damning coming from a federal judge, and
the Trump administration did, in fact, subsequently open a criminal
investigation into Bolton. But the drama didn’t end there. In September of
2020, the lawyers for Knight – the person who had initially conducted the
prepublication review – sent Bolton’s lawyers an 18-page letter. In the letter, Knight stated that political
appointees at the White House, including Eisenberg and his deputy, Michael
Ellis, had commandeered the prepublication review process right before she was
about to clear the book for publication.
Specifically, they put the authorization on hold, and
Ellis had personally gone through the manuscript and declared, improperly, huge
swaths of the manuscript classified. Judge Lamberth did not have the letter
when he was considering his ruling and had relied on Ellis’ and other NSC
officials’ declarations in making his statement concerning Bolton’s potential
criminal liability. Knight also alleged that the political appointees at the
NSC pressured her to change her assessment of Bolton’s manuscript – she refused,
and her detail to NSC was terminated. In short, Knight’s account is evidence
that ought to rebut any presumption of regularity with regard to the
prepublication process. (It also suggests that the criminal investigation on
Bolton was arguably opened on false pretenses.)
(By the way: If Ellis’ name seems familiar, it is because
he’s one of the ‘Where’s Waldo’s’ of the Trump era. He first surfaced in 2017,
when he was working in the White House Legal Counsel’s office and was one of the officials who shared information about
classified intercepted communications with Devin Nunes (for whom he had worked
previously) that led to the “unmasking” controversy. Trump later tried to install
Ellis as the General Counsel at the NSA, but his appointment was stalled because of an Pentagon inspector general
investigation and a security inquiry into whether he mishandled classified
information. Ellis, who was placed on administrative leave, later resigned.)
Anyway, all that was five years ago. Fast forward to now.
Search warrants require the probable cause to be current, meaning that there
has to be a reason to believe that evidence of a crime is in the places to be
searched now. If Bolton’s search is related to the investigation
that was opened in 2020, that would mean the FBI would have to show there was
probable cause that there was evidence of possession or dissemination of
classified information present now, years after he left the government and
published his book. The big question is, what could possibly have come up to
suddenly provide enough probable cause to obtain a warrant?
According to the New York Times, the “fresh” evidence was intelligence
collected overseas by the CIA, which was recently shared with the FBI.
Importantly, the CIA is prohibited from directly collecting evidence on U.S.
persons (USPERs). However, the CIA can use human or technical sources to target
non-U.S. persons (non-USPERs), which may result in “incidental” collection
about a U.S. person (so the source says something about an USPER or they
capture the target communicating with the USPER).
And if that incidental collection reveals evidence of
U.S. laws being broken, it can pass it to the FBI. This is relatively rare,
mainly because if the FBI decides to use that information to prosecute a
criminal case, it has the potential to reveal the CIA’s sources and methods.
Ordinarily, this built-in disincentive would mean that the CIA would not take
this step lightly – i.e., you could use the presumption of regularity.
In Bolton’s case, though, it’s hard to maintain the
presumption. For one, the intelligence was passed by the CIA director, John
Ratcliffe to the FBI Director, Kash Patel, both of whom are Trump loyalists
aligned with his agenda, including Trump’s obvious long-standing animosity
towards Bolton. (Ratcliffe had provided an affidavit against Bolton in the lawsuit about the
book, and before becoming FBI director, Patel had Bolton among 60 names on a
“deep state enemies” list.) And guess who is the Deputy Director of the CIA,
right under Ratcliffe? One Michael Ellis. You can see why this is feeling
hinky.
Perhaps, though, this search warrant is unrelated to any
of the book stuff. Maybe the CIA passed intelligence to the FBI on something
wholly unrelated, some recent incident involving classified information. In
fact, Vice President JD Vance suggested that the search was based on something new and
unrelated to the book investigation, stating, “We are in the very early stages
of investigation.” But that’s red flaggy, too.
Searches are typically executed in the later stages of an
investigation. Because it is highly intrusive, a court will want to know that
the FBI has already conducted a fairly thorough investigation and that the
specific evidence sought can be obtained only through the search. It’s hard to
see how the FBI would immediately run out and execute a search based on this
(raw?) intelligence alone.
Perhaps the intelligence did reveal an urgent national
security threat that had to be addressed immediately. If the FBI had reason to
believe that, say, someone had hundreds of pages of classified documents,
including nuclear secrets, sitting in their bathroom which hundreds of randos
had access to, it might be able to get a search warrant immediately. Unless it
involved a former president, in which case they might spend eighteen months
asking nicely to get it back. But I digress.
Vance’s comments only add to the problematic aspects of this
case. Vance also stated that “there was broad concern about Ambassador Bolton”
and that they were gathering evidence on “something we are worried about,”
adding that “if [Bolton] committed a crime, of course, eventually prosecutions
will come.”
Let’s pause for a minute. Even if there is an urgent,
national security reason to undertake a search of someone’s home, you do that
because you are investigating a specific crime, not based on vague, “broad
concerns” or “worries.” That smacks of a fishing expedition. (It’s also
possible that Vance doesn’t really understand criminal law and is just talking
out of his butt.) And not for nothing, but am I the only one wondering why the
hell the Vice President, who literally has no role in law enforcement, even
knows anything about this case?
Look, I’m a process gal. For as long as I’ve been doing
legal commentary, a presumption of regularity was always my starting point. Of course, any institution can have
rogue and bad actors, but a properly working system will have oversight
mechanisms in place to identify and weed them out – we have seen that happen
before, in things like the FISA process during the first Trump
administration. Right now, there is nothing to suggest that the judicial
process of getting the search warrant itself was not followed. That’s a good
thing. But there’s also a lot that casts doubt on whether the individuals involved
are acting in good faith or observing internal executive branch norms and
processes at all.
As my colleague Joyce Vance eloquently put it, “We are
caught in the tension between our desire to preserve what is left of the system
and the need to be clear about what is wrong.” My version is more
straightforward: This whole thing just feels hinky.
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