Sunday, November 10, 2019

"A vessel for all the worst elements of the American condition" -Charles Pierce

In my life, I have watched John Kennedy talk on television about missiles in Cuba. I saw Lyndon Johnson look Richard Russell squarely in the eye and say, 'And we shall overcome'. I saw Richard Nixon resign and Gerald Ford tell the Congress that our long national nightmare was over. I saw Jimmy Carter talk about malaise and Ronald Reagan talk about a shining city on a hill. I saw George H.W. Bush deliver the eulogy for the Soviet bloc, and Bill Clinton comfort the survivors of Timothy McVeigh's madness in Oklahoma City. I saw George W. Bush struggle to make sense of it all on September 11, 2001, and I saw Barack Obama sing 'Amazing Grace' in the wounded sanctuary of Mother Emanuel Church in Charleston, South Carolina.
“These were the presidents of my lifetime. These were not perfect men. They were not perfect presidents, god knows. Not one of them was that. But they approached the job, and they took to the podium, with all the gravitas they could muster as appropriate to the job. They tried, at least, to reach for something in the presidency that was beyond their grasp as ordinary human beings. They were not all ennobled by the attempt, but they tried nonetheless.
“And now comes this hopeless, vicious buffoon, and the audience of equally hopeless and vicious buffoons who laughed and cheered when he made sport of a woman whose lasting memory of the trauma she suffered is the laughter of the perpetrators. Now he comes, a man swathed in scandal, with no interest beyond what he can put in his pocket and what he can put over on a universe of suckers, and he does something like this while occupying an office that we gave him, and while endowed with a public trust that he dishonors every day he wakes up in the White House.
“The scion of a multi-generational criminal enterprise, the parameters of which we are only now beginning to comprehend. A vessel for all the worst elements of the American condition. And a cheap, soulless bully besides. We never have had such a cheap counterfeit of a president as currently occupies the office. We never have had a president so completely deserving of scorn and yet so small in the office that it almost seems a waste of time and energy to summon up the requisite contempt.
“Watch how a republic dies in the empty eyes of an empty man who feels nothing but his own imaginary greatness and who cannot find in himself the decency simply to shut up even when it is in his best interest to do so. Presidents don't have to be heroes to be good presidents. They just have to realize that their humanity is our common humanity, and that their political commonwealth is our political commonwealth, too. Watch him behind the seal of the President of the United States. Isn't he a funny man? Isn't what happened to that lady hilarious? Watch the assembled morons cheer. This is the only story now."
-Charles Pierce

Saturday, November 9, 2019

“The Civic Federation urges the Governor’s Office and sponsors of Senate Bill 616 to demonstrate the need for the specific Tier 2 enhancements in the legislation”

Tier 2 and Social Security Safe Harbor Concerns

“Some pension experts warned as early as 2010 that the new benefit structure was so low that it might force certain government employees to participate in the Social Security system. In Illinois most public employees, including teachers and public safety workers (but excluding most members of the State Employees’ Retirement System), do not pay into Social Security. To qualify for exemption from Social Security coverage, government workers must receive a retirement benefit from their public pension plan that is at least equal to the benefit they would receive under Social Security.
“The IRS has issued rules, known as safe harbors, for determining if plans meet the minimum benefit standard. If Tier 2 benefits do not meet the safe harbor tests, either the benefits might have to be increased or employees might have to pay 6.2% of their salary to Social Security, matched by an equal employer contribution.
“Unions and other Tier 2 critics are also concerned about the relatively low benefits provided to new employees. Tier 2 members of the Teachers’ Retirement System, which covers public school teachers outside of Chicago, pay 9% of their salary for pension benefits, the same as Tier 1 members. However, the cost of the Tier 2 benefit in FY2019 was 7.1% of salary, compared with 21.6% for Tier 1 benefits. As a result, Tier 2 members paid about 1.9% of their salary to subsidize Tier 1 benefits.
Senate Bill 616’s Proposed Tier 2 Changes
“In October the Governor’s pension consolidation task force recommended three changes in Tier 2 benefits for downstate and suburban police and fire funds, all of which were incorporated into Senate Bill 616. The task force report said the following changes were intended to address concerns about the fairness of Tier 2 and to avoid running afoul of IRS regulations:  
  • Surviving spouse benefit: Tier 2 eliminated pension benefits for spouses of public safety workers whose deaths occurred before the end of the ten-year period for pension benefit vesting and whose deaths were not duty-related. Senate Bill 616 reinstates the Tier 1 benefit for these surviving spouses.
  • Pensionable salary cap: The Tier 2 pensionable salary cap currently increases at one-half of CPI or 3%, whichever is less. The legislation raises the formula to the lesser of full CPI or 3%.
  • Final average salary: Senate Bill 616 restores the higher Tier 1 level based on the average of the highest four of the last five years, instead of the average of the highest eight of the last ten years.
“The first change, involving benefits paid to surviving spouses, is not expected to affect many individuals and reportedly holds great significance for first responders. The other two changes are designed, at least in part, to address the safe harbor concerns.
“According to a legal analysis commissioned by the Illinois Municipal League, Tier 2 does not satisfy the safe harbor rules because the pensionable salary cap has not increased as fast as the Social Security wage base. The Social Security wage base is the maximum amount of salary subject to Social Security tax. The wage base is adjusted each year by the change in the national average wage index. The salary cap under Tier 2 and the Social Security wage base were the same in 2011—$106,800—but the Tier 2 cap for 2019 is $114,952, while the Social Security wage base is $132,900. That is because the average wage index increased faster than the CPI-based formula used to calculate the Tier 2 cap.
“However, the Municipal League’s analysis points to an alternative IRS rule for retirement systems that do not satisfy the safe harbor rules. That provision compares the employee’s actual accrued pension benefit with the accrued benefit under a safe harbor formula. The police and fire funds satisfy this test because of the relatively high multiplier of 2.5% that is applied to final average salary to determine the pension benefit. At some point, even with the high multiplier, Tier 2 police and fire benefits might not meet the alternative IRS standards, but the analysis does not suggest the timing of any potential violation.

Questions about Proposed Tier 2 Changes

“As indicated by the discussion above, determining when or if Tier 2 benefits will violate IRS rules is not simple. The analysis must consider the pension multiplier as well as the growth in the pensionable salary cap. Supporters of Senate Bill 616 have not as yet shown whether the proposed changes are needed to satisfy legal requirements and, if they are needed, whether they must be implemented immediately.
“To the extent that growth in the pensionable salary cap is an issue, it remains to be seen whether Senate Bill 616 solves the problem. The legislation proposes that the salary cap grow by 3% or the inflation rate, whichever is less. This is clearly a faster rate than the current formula of the lesser of 3% of one-half of the inflation rate, but it does not match the national average wage index used to calculate growth in the Social Security wage base. The difference might be accounted for by the proposed change in the calculation of final average salary, which lowers the required multiplier under IRS rules.
“Up to now, neither the Governor’s task force nor supporters of Senate Bill 616 have publicly provided actuarial reviews showing the cost of the Tier 2 changes for the affected police and fire funds. In the task force report, the cost is estimated at $70 million to $95 million over five years, or $14 million to $19 million per year, but there is no supporting documentation for the estimate.
“The task force also noted that these estimated costs are minor compared to increases in investment returns projected to be earned by the consolidated funds compared with the 649 existing police and fire funds. The task force estimated that the consolidated funds could generate an additional $820 million to $2.5 billion in investment returns over five years, or $164 million to $500 million per year.
“However, it should be noted that these increased returns are not guaranteed. Any increase in actual returns will be partly due to the consolidated funds’ ability to invest in riskier investments. State law restricts the securities that the existing police and fire funds are allowed to hold. In addition, because the assumed rate of return is used as the discount rate for pension liabilities, an increase in the expected return rate by the consolidated funds would also reduce statutorily required annual pension contributions. Senate Bill 616 requires that contribution changes due to changes in actuarial assumptions be phased in over three years.  
“Since Tier 2 applies to nearly all pension funds across the State, there could be a move to simply apply the same changes to all funds statewide, also without first determining whether the changes are the minimum necessary so as not to impose additional fiscal hardship on already struggling governments.
“In recent years, the State has frequently rushed to enact pension changes without actuarial evaluation and public disclosure of their financial impact. The latest example involved pension buyouts, which were budgeted to reduce General Funds contributions by more than $400 million in FY2019 but ended up saving about $13 million that year. The original savings estimate was based largely on a different buyout plan; the enacted plan surfaced in the last days of the spring 2018 legislative session and was not vetted by pension actuaries before being approved by lawmakers.   
"The Civic Federation urges the Governor’s Office and sponsors of Senate Bill 616 to demonstrate the need for the specific Tier 2 enhancements in the legislation. In addition, they must ensure that the financial impact of any proposed Tier 2 changes is fully evaluated by pension actuaries and publicly disclosed before any action is taken by the General Assembly."

The aforementioned sections are from the Civic Federation Blog