Trump's Next Big Lie

 

The war Donald Trump started with Iran in February is now collapsing, slowly and predictably, into the same theater of fraud he’s run his entire life. So get ready for the next Big Lie: it’s coming as surely as the sun will rise tomorrow morning.

Three months in, his bombing campaign has done less damage than he claims, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, gas is pushing five bucks a gallon, his own Pentagon admits Iran’s nuclear program was only set back a few years rather than “completely obliterated,” and the negotiations he’s been bragging about in Islamabad are, by Iran’s own foreign ministry’s careful phrasing, simultaneously “very far and very close” to a deal.

Translation: there is no deal and it’s unlikely there will be one anytime soon, at least on terms Trump can honestly defend. And so, just as Wall Street learned to call his serial lies, bluffs, and retreats on tariffs the “TACO trade” — Trump Always Chickens Out — we’re about to watch the wartime version of the same play.

He’ll declare “Total Victory” (complete with the caps), the billionaire-owned right-wing media will trumpet it as the greatest foreign policy triumph since Yalta, and the rest of us will be expected to swallow this newest Big Lie and just shut up about it.

But a brutal reality is still there, even if the White House won’t acknowledge it. Under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) that Obama signed in 2015, Iran shipped 98 percent of its enriched uranium out of the country, capped enrichment at 3.67 percent (what was needed for their one nuclear power plant), dismantled thousands of its most advanced centrifuges, redesigned the Arak reactor so it couldn’t produce weapons-grade plutonium, and accepted IAEA cameras and inspectors at every nuclear facility on its soil.

The deal pushed Iran’s breakout time back hard and was verified by international inspectors who reported to the world every ninety days. Trump stupidly tore it up in 2018 because Black President “Barack Hussein Obama” had negotiated it, and within three years Iran was enriching to 20 percent and barring inspectors.

Then Trump bombed the sites he himself had freed Iran to build, and now he’s trying to negotiate his way back to something resembling what Obama already had, except he doesn’t have the leverage Obama had, because he’s shown the world he’d rather bomb than talk and he’s already used up so many of our munitions that it’s become a crisis for the Pentagon.

As a result, what he’ll come up with, if he comes up with anything, will be a fraction of the JCPOA dressed up in red, white, and blue bunting and sold to the rubes as a miracle produced by a “true genius.” Just ask any of his Cabinet members, who spend one in every six sentences during their “Apprentice” TV meetings slobbering over how wonderful, strong, and manly Trump is.

On February 29, 2020, in Doha, Trump’s envoy Zalmay Khalilzad signed a withdrawal agreement with the Taliban that excluded the elected Afghan government entirely, freed 5,000 violent Taliban fighters from prison, and set a hard deadline of May 1, 2021, for full American withdrawal.

If Hillary Clinton has put together such as surrender on the Taliban’s terms, we would’ve had hearings for a decade, but the GOP pretended it wasn’t happening. Biden inherited that contract, extended the deadline by a few months, and got blamed for the wreckage Trump had wired to explode.

The pattern’s identical to what we’re watching now with Iran: Trump makes a catastrophic decision, walks away, and either he or his Fox “News” chorus blames the cleanup crew. This time, since Trump’s in the White House instead of Biden, my bet is he’ll find a way to blame Whiskey Pete or maybe his Joint Chiefs.

Now layer NATO on top. While the Iran war drags on and the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, Trump’s been quietly gutting the most successful peacekeeping military alliance in human history. He’s already pulled 5,000 troops out of Germany and is threatening deeper cuts in Spain and Italy.

Most recently, his envoy Alexander Velez-Green told NATO allies behind closed doors that the U.S. will slash its fighter jet commitment to the alliance by a third, withdraw destroyers from NATO’s naval pool, and pull every single American submarine out of European waters. This is a major disaster for the alliance, as these American military assets are irreplaceable over the short term.

The single biggest beneficiary of every one of these moves, without exception, is Vladimir Putin. The Butcher of Moscow now watches the alliance built to contain him hollowed out by an American president whose family business was, according to investigative journalism by Craig Unger, kept solvent through the 1980s and 1990s by what amounted to billions in today’s dollars from Russian organized crime laundering money through Trump real estate after Donald had bankrupted himself repeatedly.

Now he’s bankrupting the rest of us, taking the nation down with him, with economists around the world predicting a severe recession or even a second Republican Great Depression. America is the newest version of Trump University, Trump Steaks, and the Trump Casinos.

We don’t need to draw a complicated chart to see what’s happening, this treason in plain sight, and neither do the leaders of the world’s other countries. Look at the foreign policy moves and ask one question: “Who benefits?”

— An Iran war that goes nowhere and leaves Tehran’s mullahs in charge? Russia and China both win, because the U.S. is bogged down and gas prices spike.
— This insane NATO drawdown? Putin wins, openly and obviously.
— Cruelly abandoning Ukraine? Putin.
— Trashing USAID and creating the conditions for the Ebola outbreak now spreading through East Africa? China expands its influence into the void.
— Killing the Voice of America and shuttering Radio Free Europe? Putin and Xi both throw parties.

Meanwhile the Trump family is taking a $400 million 747 from Qatar, cutting $2 billion crypto deals with the UAE, and pocketing additional billions from the Saudis. Every single move on the international chessboard either lines Trump’s pockets, advances Putin’s interests, or both. This man Eisenhower would have called a traitor and Reagan would have called an obvious Russian asset is now running the country after having seized control of the party those two built.

Most Americans are watching this with a growing sense of helpless horror — the deconstruction of USAID, the killing of Voice of America, the abandonment of allies, the protection rackets dressed up as diplomacy, the construction of hundreds of concentration camps, the lies stacked on lies, the arming and masking of lawless thugs who’re literally killing American citizens, the self-dealing grift — and the Republican Party, the party of Eisenhower and Reagan and even the patrician George H.W. Bush, can’t find ten senators willing to stand up and say “enough.”

Republican senators and members of Congress know what’s happening. They know who Trump is really working for. Many have even said so, albeit before Trump had power. They’ve read the same intelligence we have, but they say nothing because they’re afraid of a primary challenge funded by the same billionaires who’re profiting from the wreckage.

So, get ready. The Big Lie about Iran is coming, and it’s going to be loud. Trump will declare a “total and complete victory” he didn’t win, just as he declared one he didn’t win in 2020. Hegseth will hold a Pentagon presser and tell us, as he already has, that America won “a capital-V victory” and Fox “News” will run the chyron in bright red.

The rest of the press, terrified of Trump’s lawsuits, his FCC, and his street thugs (who he’s now trying to pay off), will increasingly fall in line.

And the truth — that Trump started a war he couldn’t win, lost it, walked away with less than Obama had a decade ago, gutted NATO in the process, and handed Putin his greatest geopolitical prize since the fall of the Berlin Wall — will be told only by writers and reporters operating outside the captured corporate press.

Which is why what you do next matters. Call your senator and your representative through the Capitol switchboard at 202-224-3121 and tell them you expect them to demand congressional oversight of any Iran deal Trump signs, to defend NATO and stop his military hardware withdrawal, and to investigate the financial ties between Trump’s family and the foreign governments he’s enriching.

Find your state legislators at openstates.org and make sure they’re on record. Register everyone you know to vote at vote.org, because the 2026 midterms are now the firewall. If you can support independent journalism — including this newsletter — please do so, and please share this piece widely. The billionaire-owned media won’t tell the truth about what Trump is about to claim. That job falls to us.

-Thom Hartmann

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Like so many of this newsletter’s readers, Louise and I have children and grandchildren who’ll inherit the consequences of this man’s foreign policy, so when we watch him repeat the same pattern across continent after continent it doesn’t feel like ordinary political disagreement. It feels like watching someone systematically dismantle the country they’ll grow up in.

P.S. Consider Afghanistan. Trump blamed the chaotic exit from Kabul in August 2021 on Joe Biden because Biden was the one in the chair when the helicopters lifted off, but the deal that forced that timeline was Trump’s.