The world still sees America as
powerful. Increasingly, it no longer sees us as trustworthy.
According to a Pew Research Center survey across 24 countries released this month, majorities in most nations hold little or no confidence in the United States to handle major global issues—from climate change to the Russia-Ukraine war. Confidence in American leadership has dropped sharply in long-standing partner nations, including Canada, Mexico, Sweden, and Poland.
Favorable views of the
United States overall have fallen in 15 of the 24 countries. And when asked to
describe Donald Trump, the president now representing the United States to the
world, the most common words were “arrogant” and “dangerous.”
That perception is no longer
shaped by foreign policy only. It now also includes how the United States
handles dissent at home. The incident on this month when Sen. Alex Padilla of
California was forcibly removed by
federal agents from a Homeland Security press conference in Los Angeles after
attempting to question Secretary Kristi Noem about immigration enforcement will
be read abroad as a sign that America’s constitutional reflexes are fraying and
that disagreement itself is now treated as criminal.
There is growing international
recognition that the United States has entered a new phase of governance: one
in which accountability is no longer expected and admission of error is treated
not as honesty but as weakness. That shift did not begin with Trump. But he
proved how quickly the habit of deflection could be turned into doctrine. What
had once been a political instinct—to delay, to soften, to redirect—has now
hardened into a governing principle: Never admit fault.
The impulse to deflect has been
weaponized. Dissent is recast as insurgency. Protest is met with military
deployment. What once required reflection now demands force. Trump didn’t
invent that instinct, but, under his leadership, it has acquired the full
weight of executive authority.
For decades, America’s strength
was not only in its capabilities but in its capacity to self-correct. The power
of our example rested on more than slogans. It was built on a belief—shared by
allies and adversaries alike—that when we erred, institutions would push back.
That the press would investigate. That courts would hold. That mistakes, though
inevitable, would not be normalized.
The collapse of that expectation
is not just visible. It is being measured. And the damage might not be
reversible—even if the leadership changes.
We often speak of American exceptionalism as
if it were a given. But what made the idea credible wasn’t power; it was
restraint. Foreign observers might have bristled at American self-regard, but
they noticed when U.S. courts ruled against their presidents, when journalists
exposed flawed wars, when domestic outrage led to reforms abroad. The myth endured
because, despite its contradictions, it included a capacity for self-judgment.
That model is eroding in full
view. The United States no longer projects a commitment to accountability—it
resists it as a matter of policy. The result is a version of leadership that
treats legitimacy as self-evident and trust as a given, even as both are
visibly in decline.
Soft power, once our competitive advantage, has become a casualty of that shift. The belief that humanitarian assistance pays long-term dividends—through trust, access, and influence—has been replaced by a doctrine that values only immediate return.
A generation
ago, U.S. aid after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami transformed
regional attitudes overnight. Today, we no longer seem to expect nor desire
that kind of return. If the public relations victory isn’t immediate, it’s not
worth it.
The Myanmar earthquake response in March offered a stark example. China and India dispatched emergency teams and aircraft within 48 hours, but the United States—once a first responder in global crises—managed only a press release and three liaisons, later dismissed.
The infrastructure
for American disaster response had been dismantled under earlier executive
orders, justified as cost-saving. But what was saved financially has been lost
strategically. In the regions hit hardest, Chinese aid is visible. The American
absence is noted.
That narrow calculus now applies
across our entire foreign policy. Climate, migration, trade, alliances—every
sphere is evaluated not by long-term stability but by short-term optics. Even
gestures that once carried symbolic power—presidential visits to war zones,
public acknowledgments of policy failure—have disappeared, replaced by
messaging campaigns and algorithmic press cycles.
This reflex isn’t uniquely partisan. Presidents from both parties have ducked responsibility. John F. Kennedy’s famed “defeat is an orphan” remark after the Bay of Pigs was celebrated as accountability, but it never amounted to an actual reckoning. Ronald Reagan’s televised acknowledgment of Iran-Contra came only after months of stonewalling.
Bill Clinton’s apologies
came late and often hedged. George W. Bush defended the Iraq War long after
admitting the intelligence was flawed. The pattern predates Trump. Trump fully
converted it into operating principle: no apology, no retraction, no
correction.
That change has consequences
beyond reputation. It undermines the very idea that American leadership is
adaptable. As Stephen Walt has argued,
the most consistent failure in U.S. foreign policy is not strategic overreach.
It’s the refusal to learn. The belief that mistakes can be rebranded, rather
than addressed, has led to costly wars, failed interventions, and an erosion of
legitimacy. And now that belief is being mirrored by institutions that once
checked it.
What concerns our allies is not
merely what America does—it’s what it no longer seems capable of doing. As the
Pew data makes clear, the world now sees American democracy as compromised by
internal division, with partisan conflict rated as “strong” or “very strong” by
majorities in nearly every surveyed country.
That perception, already evident
in diplomatic channels, will be reinforced by the images of Padilla, a sitting
U.S. senator, being pushed to the ground and handcuffed. This episode might not
register overseas as a headline, but it will be seen as pattern. The United
States is deploying active-duty forces against domestic protests. Federal
agencies are overriding state opposition. Courts are scrambling to clarify
authority after executive actions are carried out, not before.
These are not signs of
democratic confidence. They are signs of improvisation under duress. And they
explain, more clearly than any analyst could, why global confidence in American
leadership is collapsing—even in nations that once saw our disorder as temporary.
This has altered how partners
engage with us. European states have begun accelerating defense coordination independently
of NATO leadership. Asian
allies speak more often of hedging strategies than shared values. The
language of trust has been replaced by the language of contingency.
And still, the belief persists
in Washington that this is all cyclical. That another administration—perhaps in
2028—will repair the breach. That the world will wait. But trust is not a
contract; it is a relationship built through conduct. Trust breaks when pattern
becomes expectation.
When the United States stops
modeling self-correction, it stops being a model. It becomes just another
powerful state, asking to be trusted for its past, not for its behavior. But
the past does not compel loyalty. Only conduct does.
And if there is one lesson from
the Pew survey, it is this: The world is no longer listening to what we say
about ourselves. It is watching what we do—and it notices what we no longer
even pretend to regret.
Brian O’Neill, a retired
senior executive from the CIA and National Counterterrorism Center, is an
instructor on strategic intelligence at Georgia Tech.
The Contrarian
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