New Open Seat in Illinois Supreme Court and Other District Seats will be Expensive and Hotly Contested by Eric Krol

 

Newly redrawn Illinois Supreme Court districts mean there's an open seat in the northern and far western suburbs that’s expected to be fought over next year in a high-dollar battle key to determining which party controls the judicial branch. Four county judges and a North Shore mayor already say they're in or considering a run for the new 2nd District job, and more candidates could emerge in the coming months.

The would-be justices will have to win support from voters in Lake, Kane, McHenry, Kendall and DeKalb counties. First up is the primary election in late June 2022, with the Democrat and Republican victors then squaring off in the November general election.

The seat is one of two spots up for grabs on a court where Democrats hold a 4-3 edge, and the campaigns will unfold after both sides shattered Illinois spending records on a judicial contest in fall 2020. Illinois Republicans and their business allies scored a big win when voters rejected retention for then-Justice Tom Kilbride of Rock Island in the 3rd District, who was backed by trial lawyers and labor unions. The district has been tweaked to make it more Democrat-friendly, but for Republicans, the 2022 contests may represent the party’s best shot at regaining a toehold in state government.

“This could end up being one of the most interesting and consequential races on the ballot,” said Kent Redfield, professor emeritus of political science at the University of Illinois at Springfield. “If you’ve got an interest in maintaining some relevance politically, the court might be the way to go.”

While the justices don't carry anywhere near a high profile as that of the governor, U.S. senators, Chicago mayor, or legislative leaders, the high court's decisions have far-reaching impacts on the state's residents. During the last decade or so, the state Supreme Court has tossed from the ballot a question on whether politics should be taken out of redistricting, ruled unconstitutional a law cutting government worker pensions and threw out limits on medical malpractice damages in civil lawsuits.

“It’s had a Democratic tilt. Elect a Republican and we’ve got a court that might be more friendly to business,” Redfield said. “You could lock up the Supreme Court until the next remap in 2031.”

 

How we got here:

The state Supreme Court boundaries hadn't been redrawn since 1964. After weeks of behind-the-scenes chatter, Democrats unveiled a new judicial map on May 25, six days before the scheduled adjournment. The court redistricting plan then quickly passed the House and Senate on the strength of Democratic votes.

Republicans decried the move as a sham designed to allow Democrats to maintain and perhaps expand their political advantage on the court. Democrats said the new boundaries reflect that Illinois is a more diverse state than it was 60 years ago. They also pointed to shifts in where people live and the need for districts to have equal population numbers.

The sudden judicial redistricting was done about six months after voters in the far southern suburbs and parts of central Illinois dealt Democrats a stinging defeat by voting not to retain Kilbride. He lost after millions of dollars were spent by Republican groups linking him to then-Democratic House Speaker Michael Madigan, who was embroiled in a Commonwealth Edison federal corruption probe that played a big role in ending his reign. Madigan has denied wrongdoing and not been charged, though his former top confidants have been.

The retention result meant the 3rd District seat would be up for election in 2022, and if Republicans won, they would capture the court and overturn the Democrats' 4-3 advantage.

But the recently approved map creates a new playing field. Democrats start out with a near guarantee of three seats on the court because the Illinois Constitution requires that three justices be elected in Cook County, which is heavily Democratic. Republicans can reasonably lay claim to two downstate seats in Districts 4 and 5. 

That leaves the 2nd and 3rd Districts as the swing territory. Justice Michael J. Burke, a DuPage County resident who was appointed last year to succeed the retiring Justice Robert Thomas, had been expected to run for the 2nd District seat. But the new map moved DuPage to the 3rd District, and now that’s the seat Burke is expected to pursue, leaving the 2nd District spot wide open.

 

What the political terrain looks like:

Until Gov. J.B. Pritzker signed the new judicial boundaries into law last month, the 2nd District was made up of 13 counties --- all but one of the collar counties, the counties that bordered Wisconsin and a few other northern Illinois counties, totaling 3.2 million people, according to a legislative analysis. The new 2nd District is made up of just five counties: Lake, Kane, McHenry, Kendall and DeKalb, totaling 1.77 million people.

Just how Democratic the new 2nd District depends on the election used to measure it. Democrat Joe Biden scored 55.9% to 42.1% for then-President Donald Trump in those five counties last year. In 2018, Democrat Pritzker bested then-Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner by just 2 percentage points. Both Pritzker and Biden took all but McHenry County. In 2014, Rauner bested then-Gov. Pat Quinn by 23 percentage points in those five counties.

The Pritzker-Rauner contest is probably the most apt comparison, given that 2022 is not a presidential year, and the governor's race is once again on the ballot. Republicans are unlikely to have a self-funding billionaire candidate opposing Pritzker. But the GOP also won't have to deal with Rauner's unpopularity, and now Pritzker has to run on his record. Democratic turnout could be helped by a pro-union statewide referendum asking voters to ban laws that interfere with collective bargaining rights.

"It's a leaning Democratic district, with Kane and Lake, judging by the two largest counties," said Mark Guethle, Kane County Democratic chairman. Lake made up 40.6% of voters in the November 2018 election, with Kane in second at 27.5%.

Mark Shaw, the Lake County Republican chairman, said if the GOP can pick up both the 2nd and 3rd District seats, some issues thought to be decided, such as pension reform and legislative redistricting, potentially could be open to review.

“The fact that we could see a shift in control of the court is kind of amazing,” said Shaw, who’s also the state party co-chairman… (New Open Seat in Illinois Supreme Court will be Expensive and Hotly Contested “The stakes are high, candidates are lining up” by Eric Krol).