(CNN) “If people washed their hands regularly,
wore masks, and kept their social distance from each other, these three simple
behaviors could stop most all of the Covid-19 pandemic, even without a vaccine
or additional treatments, according to a new study.
“The
study, published Tuesday in the journal
PLoS Medicine, created a new model to look at the spread of the
disease and prevention efforts that could help stop it.
“The
contact rates in the study were based on people's interaction in the
Netherlands, but the model is appropriate for other Western countries, the
researchers at the University Medical Center Utrecht said. ‘A large epidemic
can be prevented if the efficacy of these measures exceeds 50%,’ they wrote.
“If,
however, the public is slow, but does eventually change behavior, it can reduce
the number of cases, but not delay a peak in cases, according to the model.
“If governments shut down early, but no one takes
additional personal protective steps, this would delay but not reduce a peak in
cases. A three-month intervention would delay the peak by, at most, seven
months, the study found.
“If government-imposed physical distancing was combined
with disease awareness and personal steps, the height of the peak could be
reduced, even after government imposed social distancing orders were lifted.
“‘Moreover,
the effect of combinations of self-imposed measures is additive,’ the
researchers wrote. ‘In practical terms, it means that SARS-CoV-2 will not cause
a large outbreak in a country where 90% of the population adopts handwashing
and social distancing that are 25% efficacious.’
“Even
with self-imposed social distancing, contacts with others might not be totally
eliminated. For instance, people who live together will interact, increasing
the likelihood that someone could get sick. So small outbreaks are still
likely.
“The
authors argue that governments should educate the public about how the virus
spreads and raise awareness about the crucial roles of self-distancing,
handwashing and also mask use in controlling an ongoing epidemic. It does not
differentiate between mandating some of these behaviors or encouraging them.
“There
are limits to the model. It doesn't take into effect demographics, nor does it
account for the imperfect isolation of people who are sick with Covid-19,
meaning they can infect others who care for them in a health care setting or at
home. It also doesn't account for the possibility of reinfection.
“American
public health leaders have been echoing the sentiment of this study recently.
The director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention told the Buck
Institute for Research on Aging last Tuesday the country is ‘not defenseless.’
“‘If
we all wore face coverings for the next four, six, eight, twelve weeks, across
the nation, this virus transmission would stop,’ Dr. Robert Redfield said.
“Admiral
Brett Giroir, a member of the White House coronavirus task force, said at a
briefing from the US Health and Human Services Department Thursday that masks
and physical distancing could quickly stop the spread of the pandemic.
“‘If we have that degree of compliance with these simple
measures, our models say that's really as good as shutting it down,’ Giroir
said. ‘These simple facts can really shut down the outbreak without completely
shutting down your local area’” (Three simple acts can stop Covid-19
outbreaks,study finds by Jen Christensen).
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