"Narcissism coupled with utter ignorance of history, military strategy, and the Iranian mindset set up Trump"

No wonder Donald Trump is melting down. The Iran war, more than any other Trump screw-up, perfectly illustrated the central truth at the heart of his presidential bluster: “The emperor has no clothes.” With the announcement of the half-baked ceasefire, the entire world could see that Trump, who fancies himself a great dealmaker (who critics call a conman) and a winner, turns out to be an easy mark and a loser.

Trump came oh so close to grasping the extent of his humiliation in his Truth Social post: “The Iranians don’t seem to realize they have no cards, other than a short-term extortion of the World by using International Waterways.” (One is tempted to respond: ‘Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how did you enjoy the play?’)

“Short term extortion” is a preposterous phrase to camouflage “indefinite and overwhelming leverage.” Trump’s ostensible purpose for the war (other than fantasy regime change) was to reduce Iran’s ability to project power in the regime. Now Iran can project power internationally with a chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz — while also maintaining its stockpile of enriched uranium and retaining “thousands of ballistic missiles in its arsenal that it could use by retrieving launchers from underground storage areas.”

Transporting us from tragedy to farce, Trump announced that the Iranians would not get away with blockading the Strait of Hormuz — HE would do it! As ranking member of the Senate Intelligence Committee Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA) said dryly on CNN’s “State of the Union”: “How blockading the strait gets it open suddenly — I don’t get that logic.” Neither does anyone else, Senator.

Trump still does not understand — or will not admit — that if Iran refused to release the Strait of Hormuz when it was getting pummeled by U.S. and Israeli air power, it is unfathomable that it will give up control during a negotiation in which Trump is desperate to avoid resumption of fighting. (Watching inflation soar and consumer confidence tank no doubt makes him more frantic than ever to “end” the war for good.) And indeed, the marathon negotiating session over the weekend came to… nothing.

Why should Iran give up its most valuable bargaining chip? Iran surely grasps that Trump does not have the stomach for a mammoth military exercise to free the Strait. If the Iranians had any doubt, Trump reassured them that he did not care if a deal was reached, since U.S. had “already won.” (Translation: He will walk away with the Strait in Iran’s hands.)

How did Iran wind up with all the cards (in Trump lingo, “short term extortion”)? Simple: Trump was “played,” as the New York Times illustrated in its account of how Trump plunged recklessly into a disastrous war. Unlike his predecessors, Trump got snowed by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. As former secretary of state John Kerry explained to Jen Psaki:

Kerry: I was part of any number of conversations with Netanyahu.

Psaki: Pitching the US strike Iran?

Kerry: Yes, he wanted us to strike. He came to President Obama. He made a presentation to ask to strike. President Obama refused. President Biden refused. President Bush refused.

The only thing Trump refused was to appreciate or listen to aides who warned that Netanyahu was peddling the “farcical” (CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s description) notion that bombing Iran could expedite regime change. 

Whether you prefer Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s evaluation (“Bullshit”) or Chairman of the Joints Chiefs Gen. Dan Caine’s formulation (“They oversell, and their plans are not always well-developed”), Trump’s addled brain could not process that the Iranian regime’s survival — coupled with its predictable seizure of the Strait of Hormuz and success in refurbishing missiles to hit Israel and the Gulf States — would leave Iran more dangerous. 

Narcissism coupled with utter ignorance of history, military strategy, and the Iranian mindset set up Trump (eager to repeat his success in knocking out Nicolás Maduro and in avoiding a robust Iranian response during the 12-day war) as an eager mark for Netanyahu’s farcical sales pitch.

In some cosmic karma, Netanyahu is also receiving blowback at home for failing to deliver on his “farcical” scheme. Israeli polling shows: his party is sinking in advance of this year’s elections; substantial majorities disapprove of the nothing-burger ceasefire that gives Iran overwhelming leverage; and “a majority of respondents were unconvinced that Israel and the U.S. had won the war.” 

To boot, Netanyahu has earned the enmity of 60 percent of the American people, is getting squeezed to end his Lebanon campaign, and faces the same Iranian regime, now more determined than ever to build a nuclear weapon. Netanyahu is paying the price for getting “high on his own supply.”

At any rate, Netanyahu is not the only leader adept at selling Trump a bill of goods. The world has seen that Trump has long been under the spell of Russian President Vladimir Putin. As far back as 2018, Putin persuaded Trump to believe him, not our own intelligence community, about election interference. Since then, Putin has assumed the role of ventriloquist, Trump the dummy (pun intended).

As Rex Huppke put it, the ex-KGB agent routinely fleeces “an easily glazed sucker who fancies himself a genius.” After the disastrous Alaska summit last year, where Putin utterly dominated Trump, Trump revealed his astounding gullibility. A hot mic captured his remark to French President Emmanuel Macron, that Putin “wants to make a deal for me.” 

Even Trump sheepishly admitted that sounded “crazy.”) “Trump, as always, [was] mistaking manipulation for respect. In the place of logic, he has “unquenchable narcissism,” Huppke observed. Trump is putty in the hands of cagey manipulators such as Putin or Netanyahu. Trump has continued to parrot Russia’s anti-Ukraine propaganda.

As maddening as Netanyahu’s aggressive sales pitch and Putin’s nonstop manipulation may be, other presidents have adeptly rebuffed savvy operators. Only Trump has consistently displayed jaw-dropping gullibility. He alone is responsible for repeatedly endangering our national security.

So no one should buy into Trump’s absurd “short term extortion” formulation. What happened here is simple: Trump handed Iran the rope to strangle the world’s economy. Trump is now so deluded as to claim victory without a deal to free up the Strait of Hormuz. (Instead, he’ll double blockade the Strait — that’ll show ‘em!) Iran’s extortion scheme is not a short term problem — and neither is Trump.

-Jennifer Rubin, The Contrarian is reader-supported. To receive new posts, enable our work, help with litigation efforts, and keep this opposition movement alive and engaged, please join the fight as a free or paid subscriber.

 Photo: (Credit: The White House, Public domain)