Why Zelensky won’t — and can’t — sell out Ukraine for Trump’s peace deal

Zelensky faces a dangerous choice: reject Trump's flawed peace deal or risk Ukraine's sovereignty.

I believe that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his Ukrainian negotiating team have already concluded that the peace deal that U.S. President Donald Trump is trying to force through simply cannot be sold to the Ukrainian public.     

The Trump proposal appears to require Ukraine to accept the loss of Crimea and other Russian-occupied territories, without receiving any security assurances in return. It even demands that Ukraine abandon its bid to join NATO. Given that Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity are enshrined in its constitution, it's hard to imagine Zelensky being able to secure legislative approval for such a deal — and he knows that.

For Zelensky, it must already be clear that Trump is pulling out all the stops to deliver on Putin’s agenda. Trump wants a reset in U.S.-Russia relations and appears willing to do whatever it takes to achieve that — including making concessions at Ukraine’s expense.

Trump sees Ukraine as the weaker partner in all this — a country to be bullied into accepting a deal that suits him and Putin, but not Ukraine. He seems unconcerned with whether the deal is acceptable to the Ukrainian people, or whether it would destabilize Ukraine politically, economically, and socially. That’s not his problem.

Trump appears focused solely on signing any deal — no matter how bad for Ukraine — as quickly as possible, securing headlines for delivering "peace," and perhaps even chasing the Nobel Peace Prize he so desires.

So, what is Zelensky’s strategy now?

I believe Zelensky knows that Trump will try to strike a deal with Putin regardless of what happens in Ukraine, as long as it results in normalized U.S.-Russia relations. He also knows Trump and Putin will try to pin the blame on him — and Ukraine — for any breakdown in peace talks. We saw signs of that last week, when Trump attacked Zelensky for stating the obvious: Ukraine cannot legally accept the loss of Crimea. Politically, that would be suicide for Zelensky and could spark a revolution at home.

It seems Zelensky is playing for time. He likely understands that Trump will eventually walk away from the negotiations, taking Putin with him. In the meantime, Ukraine still has access to a significant portion of the $61 billion U.S. military aid package approved under former U.S. President Joe Biden's administration. Zelensky likely wants to draw down as much of that support as possible — and secure additional European financial and military assistance — before rejecting any Trump-brokered deal.

Ideally, Zelensky wants to force Putin to walk away from the talks. But given Trump’s admiration for Putin, that seems unlikely. In the meantime, Zelensky is trying to buy time for Ukraine’s military and defense industry to strengthen its position and fill the gaps left by a potential U.S. pullback — gaps that are significant in areas like Patriot missiles, HIMARS, and ATACMS. The goal is to build enough resilience to sustain a long war, hoping that time will yield strategic advantages — whether through shifts in U.S. politics, such as the midterms, or mounting challenges for Putin inside Russia, as we saw with the Wagner Group uprising.

Whatever Trump and Putin agree to, without Ukraine’s participation, Russia simply lacks the military capacity to capitalize on it through a renewed offensive. In the end, this could be a poisoned chalice for Putin: gifted a "win" in Ukraine by Trump, but unable to follow through because of his own — and Russia’s — shortcomings.

-Timothy Ash, Kyiv Independent

Editor’s Note: The opinions expressed in the op-ed section are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Kyiv Independent.