“Last September, I met the vice-president
for risk for a Fortune 100 company in Washington DC. I asked the executive –
who previously had a long career as an intelligence analyst – the question you
would ask any risk officer: ‘What are you most worried about?’ Without pausing,
this person replied, ‘A highly contagious virus that begins somewhere in China
and spreads rapidly.’ This vice-president, whose company has offices throughout
east Asia, explained the preventive mitigating steps the company had
subsequently adopted to counter this potential threat.
“Since
the novel coronavirus has swept the world, I have often thought about this
person’s prescient risk calculus. Most leaders lack the discipline to do
routine risk-based horizon scanning, and fewer still develop the requisite
contingency plans. Even rarer is the leader who has the foresight to correctly
identify the top threat far enough in advance to develop and implement those
plans.
“Suffice
it to say, the Trump administration has cumulatively failed, both in taking
seriously the specific, repeated Intelligence Community warnings
about a coronavirus outbreak and in vigorously pursuing the nationwide response
initiatives commensurate with the predicted threat. The federal government
alone has the resources and authorities to lead the relevant public and private
stakeholders to confront the foreseeable harms posed by the virus.
Unfortunately, Trump officials made a series of judgments (minimizing the
hazards of Covid-19) and decisions (refusing to act with the urgency required)
that have needlessly made Americans far less safe.
“In
short, the Trump administration forced a catastrophic strategic surprise onto
the American people. But unlike past strategic surprises – Pearl Harbor, the
Iranian revolution of 1979, or especially 9/11 – the current one was brought
about by unprecedented indifference, even willful negligence.
Whereas, for example, the 9/11 Commission Report assigned
blame for the al-Qaida attacks on the administrations of presidents Ronald
Reagan through George W Bush, the unfolding coronavirus crisis is
overwhelmingly the sole responsibility of the current White House.
“Chapter 8 of
the 9/11 Commission Report was titled, The System Was Blinking Red. The quotation
came from the former CIA director George Tenet, who was characterizing the
summer of 2001, when the intelligence community’s multiple reporting streams
indicated an imminent aviation terrorist attack inside the United States.
Despite the warnings and frenzied efforts of some counter-terrorism officials,
the 9/11 Commission determined ‘We see little evidence that the progress of the
plot was disturbed by any government action … Time ran out.’
“Last
week, the Washington Post reported on
the steady drumbeat of coronavirus warnings that the intelligence community
presented to the White House in January and February. These alerts made little
impact upon senior administration officials, who were undoubtedly influenced by
President Donald Trump’s constant derision of the virus, which he began on
22 January: ‘We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from
China, and we have it under control. It’s going to be just fine.’
“By now,
there are three painfully obvious observations about Trump’s leadership style
that explain the worsening coronavirus pandemic that Americans now face. First,
there is the fact that once he believes absolutely anything – no matter how
poorly thought-out, ill-informed or inaccurate – he remains completely anchored
to that initial impression or judgment. Leaders are unusually hubristic and
overconfident; for many, the fact that they have risen to elevated levels of
power is evidence of their inherent wisdom. But truly wise leaders
authentically solicit feedback and criticism, are actively open thinkers, and
are capable of changing their minds. By all accounts, Trump lacks these
enabling competencies.
“Second,
Trump’s judgments are highly transmissible, infecting the thinking and behavior
of nearly every official or adviser who comes in contact with the initial
carrier. Unsurprisingly, the president surrounds himself with people who look,
think and act like he does. Yet, his inaccurate or disreputable comments also
have the remarkable ability to become recycled by formerly honorable military,
intelligence and business leaders. And if somebody does not consistently parrot
the president’s proclamations with adequate intensity, they are fired, or it is
leaked that their firing could be imminent at any time – most notably the
recent report of
the president’s impatience with the indispensable Anthony Fauci, the director
of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.
“And,
third, the poor judgments soon contaminate all the policy-making arms of the
federal government with almost no resistance or even reasonable questioning.
Usually, federal agencies are led by those officials whom the White House
believes are best able to implement policy. These officials have usually
enjoyed some degree of autonomy; not under Trump. Even historically
non-partisan national security or intelligence leadership positions have been
filled by people who are ideologically aligned with the White House, rather
than endowed with the experience or expertise needed to push back or account
for the concerns raised by career non-political employees. Thus, an initial
incorrect assumption or statement by Trump cascades into day-to-day policy
implementation.
“The same
Post report featured the following stunning passage from an anonymous US
official: ‘Donald Trump may not have been expecting this, but a lot of other
people in the government were – they just couldn’t get him to do anything about
it. The system was blinking red.’ That latter passage is an obvious reference
to that aforementioned central finding of the 9/11 Commission Report.
“Given
that Trump concluded early on that the coronavirus simply could not present a
threat to the United States, perhaps there is nothing that the intelligence
community, medical experts employing epidemiological models, or public health
officials could have told the White House that would have made any difference.
Former national security adviser Henry Kissinger is reputed to
have said after an intelligence community warning went unrecognized, ‘You
warned me, but you didn’t convince me.’ Yet, a presidential brain trust wholly
closed off to contrarian, though accurate, viewpoints is incapable of being
convinced.
“The
White House detachment and nonchalance during the early stages of the coronavirus
outbreak will be among the most-costly decisions of any modern presidency.
These officials were presented with a clear progression of warnings and crucial
decision points far enough in advance that the country could have been far
better prepared. But the way that they squandered the gifts of foresight and
time should never be forgotten, nor should the reason they were squandered:
Trump was initially wrong, so his inner circle promoted that wrongness
rhetorically and with inadequate policies for far too long, and even today.
Americans will now pay the price for decades.”
The Guardian
“…As we try to adjust to a total stoppage of life as we know it due to the spread of COVID-19, the lack of preparedness by the federal government is utterly and indefensibly unfathomable.
ReplyDelete“We’ve watched the president of the United States first dismissing the severity of the crisis, his own experts contradicting him publicly; confusion over the responsibilities of the federal government versus individual states; governors fighting with the White House for supplies; a shortage of personal protective equipment for our doctors on the front lines; hospitals overwhelmed with patients; Congress playing politics with relief funding.
“How could one of the wealthiest and powerful countries on the planet be this behind the curve? From the simplest of tools — like a disaster supply chain org chart — to the most complex and sophisticated pandemic readiness plans, it seems as though the United States had next to nothing in place…” (America’s lack of pandemic preparedness is unforgivable, New York Daily News).
On Florida's Space Coast, all libraries are still open with recently (two days) limited services. Gov. DeSantis (R) owes his election to Trump. The beaches, with its thousands of out of town visitors and young partiers are still not all closed - local businesses might suffer - until midnight tonight, with some exceptions. The 100% republican Brevard County Commissioners have refused to address this.
ReplyDeleteSince anyone over 65 and those younger but with histories of chronic illnesses are refused testing even when symptoms are all present, they are not counted as confirmed cases of Covid-19. They are told to go home and self-quarantine. The ideology extends to the elected sheriff and the full county commission which refuses to grant information to the Gannett newspapers (USA Today and Florida Today which is the sole published daily newspaper. The elected officials have openly declared the press to be hostile "fake" news.
The nightmare continues.