"The real numbers prove Trump is making us poorer and less productive—all the while feathering his own (garishly gold) nest"

“All new numbers,” boasted Donald Trump last week in the Oval Office, showing off brightly colored charts, the economic equivalent of the Sharpie-edited hurricane map from his first term. Whatever “data” (unpublished and unverified, the press duly noted) they rely on, Trump’s “new numbers” (like “alternate facts”) cannot be taken seriously. The real numbers don’t lie.

Trump’s firing of the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics followed by the amateur Oval Office show-and-tell were feeble attempts to cover up his economic failure. He has also tried changing the topic (e.g., making wild threats to investigate enemies; or suggesting grandiose plans to Trumpify the White House with a massive, gaudy ballroom more fitting for one of his bankrupted casinos). He has tried throwing red meat to his base (e.g., “disappearing” and abusing immigrants). However, his tactics are failing. He won’t fool the public suffering under his regime.

Trump vowed to lower prices. Instead, his tariffs (i.e. consumer taxes) will cost the average American family $2400 per year. Meanwhile, tariffs and the threat on inflation have prevented the Federal Reserve from lowering rates, costing billions in higher interest rates while slowing growth.

In addition, if Trump and his MAGA congressional allies allow the subsidies for the Affordable Care Act to expire, many American Families will be hit again:

A family of three earning $110,000 a year and enrolled in a silver ACA plan — which usually comes with moderate monthly premiums — could see their monthly cost jump from $779 this year to $1,446 in 2026 when the enhanced subsidies expire, according to KFF. If insurers raise premiums by 15%, the monthly bill could climb even higher, to $1,662.

Thanks to the big, ugly bill, energy costs will escalate. “Wholesale electricity prices will increase 19 percent by 2030 and 61 percent by 2035; wholesale electricity costs will balloon 56 percent and electricity rates paid by consumers will increase between 9-16 percent by 2035,” according to a nonpartisan think tank. “Household energy costs will increase $160 annually by 2030.” And to boot, the economy will lose 770,000 jobs by 2030.

But all this pain, Trump told us, would help create manufacturing jobs! (Donald Trump has an abnormal attachment to the 1950’s economy, although automation has shrunk this sector of the labor market). Nevertheless, the only thing Trump has yet created is uncertainty.

Despite his wild promises, The Wall Street Journal reported: “Economic activity tied to manufacturing has shrunk for most of Trump’s second term.” The outlook is bleak:

From March to July, U.S. manufacturing activity contracted, according to the Institute for Supply Management’s monthly survey. The Manufacturing PMI last registered at 48, below the 50 score that differentiates growth and decline.

The effective average tariff rate on all imported goods now stands at roughly 18% versus 2.3% last year, the highest levels since the 1930s. . .. The sector lost a total of about 26,000 jobs in May and June, and another preliminary estimate of 11,000 jobs in July.

Empty promises from major companies and foreign countries to invest in the U.S. may fool Trump, but few others. It is hard to increase manufacturing with heavy tariffs on aluminum, steel, copper, and other component parts. Credible economists explain that the tariffs are almost certainly not going to result in re-shoring manufacturing. 

For one thing, “the unpredictability of Trump’s trade wars still makes it impossible for companies to decide on big capital commitments, like moving a factory from Asia to the U.S.” Consumers are also uneasy, reducing demand for big-ticket items.

To recap: Trump’s policies are dramatically raising key household costs, including healthcare, while job growth has ground to a standstill, interest rates are frozen, and the manufacturing sector is bleeding jobs. A foreign power could not have devastated the economy this effectively.

And matters will get much worse if Trump so unsettles the international economic system that capital takes flight from the U.S. and U.S. dollar loses its status as the world’s reserve currency. As Ryan Cooper put it:

How is the world supposed to trust a nation degenerate enough to elect an ultra-corrupt lunatic who is tearing up the global trade system designed by and for America itself—twice? If Trump is willing to threaten wars of conquest against two separate NATO allies (Canada and Denmark), who knows who else he might sanction? ….

It’s not so much Trump’s deficits that are the core of the problem, but rather how his election and behavior have shaken global faith in America itself.

Trump’s cruel, chaotic, and counterproductive immigration policies only deepen our economic troubles. His economic illiteracy and the efforts to divert our focus make things worse. Depriving America of productive workers and consumers (and the taxes they pay into Social Security and Medicare) is a recipe for shrinking the economy, driving up prices, and expanding the debt. Moreover, with each new city he targets, Trump touches off an economic meltdown.

According to a study put out by the University of California at Merced, the ICE raids caused a drop of 3.1% in the state workforce. This amounts to “roughly 465,000 fewer Californians reporting having worked during the week of escalated immigration enforcement.” Another study estimated California was looking at a $275B loss to its economy. That’s the sort of wreckage one might expect from a pandemic (Trump 1.0), not from the deliberate policies of the president.

Virtually every dictatorial, vengeful move Trump undertakes, even if not directed at the economy, will likely weaken our already fragile system.

· Retract hundreds of millions in funding, grants, and other research contracts at universities and bar foreign students from attending? The U.S. will lose its scientific, medical, and technological edge, allowing China to dominate international markets.

· Hire a crackpot vaccine skeptic to head the Department of Health and Human Services? Our cutting-edge mRNA research goes down the drain, and the risks of another paralyzing pandemic rise—with devastating impact on the economy.

· Let DOGE mindlessly slash government programs? Our air-traffic control system deteriorates and our weather service early warning network collapses.

· Bully allies and move toward a police state? Foreign tourism dwindles and international fans may stay away from the World Cup and Olympics, at the cost of billions of dollars.

Trump’s erratic, authoritarian reign of terror and cruelty damages democracy, destroys communities, and inflicts pain on Americans. But his lunacy makes his economic performance that much worse.

So let’s dispense with any further discussion of “new numbers.” The real numbers prove Trump is making us poorer and less productive—all the while feathering his own (garishly gold) nest.

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