Trump's war on Iran and its impact

 

Most people have little understanding of what is big or small in the federal budget, in large part because the media have made a conscious decision to not inform people. Rather than taking ten seconds to indicate what share of the budget a particular item is, they just write huge numbers in the millions or billions, knowing they are completely meaningless to almost everyone who sees them.

With this in mind, I thought it would be useful to write a piece pointing out that the $200 billion (2.9% of the budget) Trump plans to ask to cover the cost of his war in Iran is, in fact, a big deal. While this is still less than what we spend on huge social programs like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, it is far larger than most of the items that are subject of major political debates.

Just to mention a few, we can start with the fraud in Minnesota in social programs that the Justice Department has uncovered. To date, this comes to $250 million. Trump has claimed there is $19 billion in fraud, but Trump also has claimed he has arranged for $18 trillion in foreign investment into the country and that he will reduce drug prices by 1500 percent. Numbers don’t have the same meaning for Trump and his team as they do for the rest of us.

While it is likely that the total figure for fraud will go higher, it almost certainly is not the earth-shattering scandal that Team Trump has claimed. After all, a childcare center refusing to let a random clown with a camera crew film the kids are not evidence of fraud. 

Where there is money on the table, whether in the public or private sector, some will be misspent or stolen. Trump has chosen to make a big deal out of the fraud in Minnesota because at least some of it involves Somali immigrants, but that is evidence of Trump’s racism, not a massive fraud problem.

The next item is the $550 million in annual funding for the Corporation for Public Broadcasting. Trump apparently felt it was important to save taxpayers this money rather than helping to fund Big Bird and National Public Radio. This spending comes to a bit less than $4 a household.

Then we have the Biden childcare agenda that would have cost $42.4 billion a year. This set of proposals would have made childcare affordable for the vast majority of people in the country. The last item for comparison is the extension of the enhanced Obamacare subsidies that was the basis for the government shutdown in the fall.  This would cost roughly $27 billion for a single year.

If you’re wondering where the bars are for the Minnesota fraud or funding for public broadcasting, I didn’t forget them. The bars are too small to be visible next to Trump’s Iran war budget. The childcare programs and Obamacare subsidies are visible, but an order of magnitude smaller than what Trump is asking for.

The point here is that the war is a really big deal in terms of the budget. The biggest impact is, of course, the lives lost and put in danger by the war. And the economic impact on the United States and world is enormous. 

But this is also a huge budget issue. It is the sort of expenditure that a president would ordinarily feel they have to make a serious case for and not just demand the money from Congress.

But I suppose Trump thinks that since his mandate was almost as large as Hillary Clinton’s in 2016, he has more authority than most presidents. Congress and the country need to bring some reality to this story.

This first ran on Dean Baker’s Beat the Press blog. Dean Baker is the senior economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, DC.