Our Democracy Is on Life Support

 

Donald Trump went politically underwater at an historically early point in his second term. His positive approval rating vanished in February, and his polling has drifted downward since then. Rising inflation; draconian cuts to everything from healthcare to public broadcasting; lies and erratic reversals in foreign policy (e.g., exaggerating the results of military strikes on Iran, flip-flopping on Ukraine, on-again-off-again-on-again-off-again trade wars); and now the intractable Jeffrey Epstein scandal have simultaneously annoyed his base and alienated the rest of the public.

Democrats may as well appreciate how quickly Trump has fired up their base while weakening his own, a rarity in politics. That leaves three key questions at the 6-month mark of his term:

• Where does our democracy stand?
• What do the last 6 months portend for 2026?
• How should Democrats focus the energy of their party’s direction?

Democracy hanging by a thread

Bluntly, democracy is in rotten shape. Despite heroic lawyering, growing protests, and dogged Democratic opposition, the Trump regime has progressed in its quest to create a police state, seize from Congress power to reshape government, and intimidate law firms, universities, and quisling legacy media companies (including CBS, ABC, and the Washington Post) that have capitulated to bullying. Government lawyers snub and evade court orders. Presidential corruption is off the charts.

While Congress has become seemingly irrelevant, the Supreme Court continues to enable Trump’s power grabs. The tribunal consistently reveals its blatantly partisan nature—not bothering to explain itself in emergency orders or to grapple with disagreeable facts. The MAGA majority at virtually every turn has undermined lower courts that have ruled against Trump’s authoritarian moves.

The results of Trump’s power grabs at the expense of the other two branches have reversed decades of progress. The Trump regime has made our tax system more regressive, increased prices, hobbled government services, undermined science-based health and climate policy, and snatched away healthcare coverage, food aid, and college assistance from millions. Republicans have slashed spending for everything from the National Weather Service to PBS to Planned Parenthood. Trump has crippled our soft power around the globe.

Certainly, if not for litigation wins, the pain and financial harm inflicted on Americans (e.g., AmeriCorps employees, teachers, cities, and non-profits) and our institutions (e.g., law firms, universities) would be far worse. Delaying or minimizing harm inflicted on such universities, government employees, law firms, and immigrants is not nothing. (Fortunately, the Supreme Court cannot hear every case, leaving many lower court rulings against Trump in place.)

Although democracy is inarguably in worse shape since Trump took office, democracy’s antibodies have surged. Millions have taken to the streets and otherwise protested the abrogation of civil rights, the shameful weaponization of the criminal justice system, and violent attacks on brown and black people.

Democratic politicians have learned to respond to Trump’s outrages more quickly and effectively, demonstrating solidarity with working Americans. As a result, Trump’s overall approval is underwater, and the public disapproves of his performance on virtually every issue, including immigration. That brings us to the midterms.

The midterms

Presidential approval is not always a determining factor in midterms. Democrats, the incumbent party, performed historically well in 2022 despite Biden’s approval ratings. In the wake of Dobbs, Democrats managed a net gain of 1 Senate seat and a net loss of only 9 House seats. By contrast, President Obama was barely in negative territory in 2010 when Democrats lost a net 6 Senate and 63 House seats.

Two factors give Democrats the opportunity to make the 2026 midterms look more like the opposition party’s tsunami of 2010 than the ripple of 2022. The Epstein scandal has punctured the trust between Trump and a segment of his base, which may prompt some MAGA voters to stay home in a huff. Republicans own every miserable vote and policy disaster.

They have rubber-stamped or condoned Trump’s parade of policy horrors. Democrats will be able to tie each Republican to specific, dire results that affect ordinary voters. (The map is expanding both in the House and in the Senate, thanks to North Carolina Senator Thom Tillis’s announced retirement and poor GOP candidate selection, putting many more seats within reach for Democrats.)

Some Democratic insiders might think that inoffensive policy and modulated language win elections. However, real-world experience (e.g., the Wisconsin Supreme Court race, victories in special elections, mass protests, New York mayoral race) confirms that when Democratic activists boldly take on Republicans, they can mobilize a broader cross-section of the electorate. Significant midterm victories—the only real way to stop and reverse assaults on democracy and Americans’ economic well-being—will be possible in about 16 months.

The longer term

Beyond setting the stage for midterm wins, the last six months offer Democrats valuable lessons.

Voters:

· Respond to fighters (e.g., Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Sen. Corey Booker, Gov. Gavin Newsom, or Gov. J.B. Pritzker) who do not hold back in attacking MAGA extremists.

· Prefer fresher voices expressing righteous anger rather than old fogies acting as if opposition is futile.

· Favor politicians who pledge dramatic change, not more of the same.

· Understand that corrupt billionaires are ripping them off (e.g., taking away healthcare to fund enormous tax cuts).

· Reward plain-spoken messengers regardless of ideology (e.g., Zohran Mamdani or Gov. Andy Beshear of Kentucky).

· Favor a secure social safety net.

· Reject the notion that securing the border and deporting dangerous criminals necessitates a police state that disappears their hardworking neighbors.

· Recoil against power grabs, lawlessness, corruption, cruelty, and corrupt oligarchs, even though abstract appeals to “democracy” leave them cold.

That should encourage Democrats to offer bold programs that support American workers and expand opportunities (e.g., subsidized childcare, paid sick leave) and to back radical reform to knock oligarchs down to size (e.g., Supreme Court expansion and term limits, financial transparency for politicians, ending gerrymandering).

If Democrats decry attacks on civil liberties, cruelty, and state violence, voters will respond. And finally, years of fear, threats, insults, dystopia, and geriatric politicians coupled with an inspiring, authentic, and youthful Democratic leader who carries a message of hope and change may capture the voters’ imagination (as happened in 1996 and 2008).

Our democracy may be on life support, but its medium and long-term prognosis is brighter, provided Democrats impede the collapse of democracy and gain momentum with election wins this year in Virginia and New Jersey. The midterms, then, will be make-or-break time for democracy.

The Contrarian is reader-supported. To support our work in the courts of law and the court of public opinion, please join our community by becoming a free or paid subscriber.