Election Prediction

 

Here’s an early prediction: Donald Trump will unilaterally declare victory sometime this evening. He’ll do it no matter what’s going on. He lies about everything—he lied about where Obama was born, he lied about bleach curing Covid, he lied about winning the election in 2020, and he’s lied about Kamala Harris throughout the campaign, including claiming she just “turned black.” It should come as no surprise that he will lie about the outcome of this election.

Trump will lie; he will do it convincingly in the view of his base, more than likely. He will do it without regard for the truth in order to suit his purposes. He makes stuff up, like Monday night when he said there was a 96.2% chance he would win—completely baseless. I know it’s not the prediction you wanted, but we should all be prepared for this. Hopefully the media will be prepared to simultaneously fact-check him as it’s happening.

Some states will have final tallies, or close to them, tonight. Michigan, for instance, has new rules that are designed for a faster count. Others may take a day or longer, including Arizona and Georgia, especially if it’s close. Litigation can also delay results, but as we know from 2020, just because the Trump campaign or the RNC files a case, it doesn’t mean they’ll win. As Marc Elias is quick to point out, he won 61 of 62 cases in 2020, and the one he lost was just an early-stage procedural issue.

We may see certification-resister officials at the county level, like the Georgia cases we’ve been tracking. Some of this could delay results too. But, at least so far, courts have taken a dim view of election deniers who claim that state laws that say they have a mandatory duty to certify election results don’t actually mean that. It may take a court decision or two to get final results in some places.

We all want to know the outcome of the election as soon as possible, but just like in 2020, delay doesn’t mean fraud is happening or something else is amiss. It means all of the votes are being counted. No matter what Trump says.

Federal officials continue to be on high alert for the risk of violence at polling places. Again, be cautious as news emerges. There are reports that Russia is circulating disinformation. Wait for confirmation—from credible sources—of anything you hear.

Late Monday, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, the FBI, and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Agency put out a joint bulletin cautioning that Russia and other foreign interests were using disinformation campaigns to undercut Americans’ confidence in the integrity of the election and stoke divisions. They said they expected to see more of this on election day and after.

We all know the most likely scenarios for how today could unfold. I'm sure you've been playing them over and over in your head, just like I have:

• American women and the men who love them, outraged by Dobbs and Trump’s misogyny, reject a return to second-class citizenship for themselves and their daughters. They turn out and vote in record numbers, especially white suburban women, independents, and centrist Republicans. The polls close, and it's over within hours. It's a romp. Kamala wins by convincing margins. Or,
• It's a virtual dead heat in many of the battleground states. Vote counts go late into the night, but we realize they won't be complete until later in the week when provisional ballots and various types of mail ballots are counted. Or,
• The RNC goes to the mattresses early and an insane number of court challenges crop up in multiple counties, swamping the courts. The country waits in a state of suspended animation while the lawyers do battle.

And so forth.

Lots of possibilities; all just speculation. Let’s wait and see what actually happens.

Today's the day! If you haven't already—if you couldn't in advance, like I can't here in Alabama with its one day of voting—get out and vote. If you know anyone who hasn't, remind them to. Offer them a ride if they need one.

I’ll vote first thing this morning with friends from my neighborhood. Our polling place has been combined with another polling place. Instead of a school, we now vote at a library. It’s a little bit further from our house, but not significantly so. We've been wondering what the lines will be like with the combined precincts. It feels festive, important, and very American to be preparing to vote in this most crucial of all elections.

I’ll keep up with developments and may pop in with a quick post if anything happens while the polls are open. Tonight, we’ll watch the results come in.

In many ways, this campaign has been a form of slow torture. But I have also learned something important in the past few months: We still have what it takes. We are strong. We care deeply about our democracy. We can build community.

Of course, that’s not true for everyone. Some people have gone astray and have given in to the allure of easy money, snake oil and a would-be-strongman who gives them permission to blame all of their woes on immigrants and communist-Democrats. But there are enough of us who still care about democracy and about having the ability to live our lives in freedom and with dignity. And we are going to prevail.

We're in this together,

Joyce Vance