“…Federal
law says that the states have to finalize their choices of electors on Dec. 8
of the year of elections. And on Dec. 14, the electoral college casts their votes — typically
with each group of electors meeting separately in their own state. [According
to Professor Robert Shapiro and former acting director of Columbia University's
Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy], at that point, the matter is settled. If more
electors vote for Trump, he will get a second inauguration. If more vote for
Biden, he will be the legal president-elect, beyond the reach of a court
challenge. U.S. presidential candidates have always accepted election results.
Still, what if Trump still refuses to leave?
“It's
worth saying again that while Trump has refused to commit to a peaceful transfer
of power, he hasn't explicitly said he would reject results even at this point.
And it would be a true first in American history. Asked if any president had
ever hinted at refusing to accept election results, Bruce Schulman, a historian
at Boston University, said no. ‘There is no such precedent or anything really
like it,’ Schulman told Live Science. Twice, in 1824 and 1876, presidential
elections have ended in the House of Representatives after no candidate managed
to secure a majority of the electoral college, he pointed out.
“In
1824, Andrew Jackson, John Quincy Adams, Henry Clay and William Crawford all
ran for the presidency, none won an electoral college majority, and the House
selected Adams as president. The 1876 congressional contest ended when
Republican Rutherford B. Hayes promised congressional Democrats that he would
end Reconstruction in return for their votes. That remains one of the most
significant events in American history, as The Atlantic reported. But in each case, the loser
accepted the final result. (The 1860 election, though it led to a civil war,
did not spark any disputes about who had been legitimately elected President,
Schulman noted.)
“A more relevant precedent, said Noah Rosenblum, a
legal historian at Columbia University in New York City, may be the election of
1800, between President John Adams (a Federalist) and Vice President Thomas
Jefferson (a Democratic-Republican). ‘That election, as you may know, pitted
the Federalists against the Democratic-Republicans, and the contest was fierce,’
Rosenblum said. ‘Each side expressed its sense that, if the other won, it would
mean the end of the Republic. And the Federalists, who were in power, took
action explicitly designed to weaken their Democratic-Republican opponents,
including passing the notorious Alien and Sedition Acts under which they
imprisoned Democratic-Republican newspaper editors.’
“In other words, democracy was on the ballot. ‘Nevertheless,
after the Federalists lost the (very close) election, John Adams peacefully
stepped down in favor of Thomas Jefferson,’ Rosenblum said. So, a scenario
where Trump refuses to accept a decided election result would be outlandish,
even by the rough and tumble standards of the 19th century. But still, what
if? ‘You're talking about the situation where the vote has been counted,
all legal challenges to the vote have been taken care of, the electors meet on
the 14th and cast their votes,’ Shapiro said.
“The procedure then is clear. ‘At that point it gets
passed on to Congress [usually by Dec. 23] and certified in Congress on Jan. 6
by the [outgoing] vice president,’ Shapiro said. ‘Now, on the 6th, let's say
that the House and the Senate accept that the new president of the United
States is Joe Biden. At that juncture, if Trump doesn't want to vacate the
White House, this is very easy.’
“In legal terms, there's little Trump could do to
hold on to power. ‘Somebody swears [Biden] in as president. It could be the
chief justice of the Supreme Court. It could be his grandmother. As of noon, on
the 20th [of January], he's the president of the United States. The entire
Secret Service reports to him,’ Shapiro said. ‘Donald Trump as the outgoing
president has a contingent of Secret Service. Biden goes to the White House and
the Secret Service escorts Trump out. That's what happens. All the civil
service of the government, every employee of the United States reports to Joe
Biden at that juncture.’
“This story of a straightforward resolution comes
with its own assumptions: That the electors are able to vote and have their
votes certified; that institutions of the federal government — including
Congress, with its roll in certifying results — function as expected; and that
the Secret Service (as well as other armed federal agents) follow the law.
There are places in the world and moments in history where transfers of power
have broken down along similar lines. But never before in the United
States.
“As Jonathan Gienapp, a Stanford University historian, noted in
October, Trump's refusal to commit to a peaceful transfer of power calls the
strength of American institutions into question. The constitution itself has no
direct safeguards to ensure peace, and instead assumes that everyone involved
in an election shares a commitment to abiding by the outcome. ‘We have
institutions that can be called upon to arbitrate disputes or deny unlawful
usurpations of power, but the safeguards that will decide matters are more
political than constitutional,’ he wrote. ‘It may fall to elected political leaders, as it
did in 1876-77, to work out some sort of compromise. Or, if necessary, the
people will need to exercise their fundamental right to assemble and protest in
an attempt to bring about resolution.’
“Still, Shapiro said he expects America's
multi-century streak of turning over the presidency according to the rules to
continue, if everything goes right up until that point. ‘That's the easiest
scenario,’ he said. ‘I think the Secret Service is going to report to the new
president of the United States. The harder scenario is getting the agreed-upon
vote count and the agreed-upon electors.’
“All that said, a recalcitrant Trump could do plenty
in the months between today and inauguration to make trouble for Biden…”
Originally published on Live Science,
November 3.
If Donald Trump Refuses to Leave the White House, the Secret Service Will Escort Him Out.
ReplyDelete“…The 20th Amendment has it that Trump, or any other lame-duck leader, loses his presidential mandate January 20 at noon, and, if he tries to stick around after that, the very guard once tasked with protecting the nation's top officeholder now has to evict him. ‘The Secret Service would escort him off, they would treat him like any old man who'd wandered on the property,’ one former official involved in the transition process between former President Barack Obama and Trump told Newsweek. And whether or not Trump actually attends the Inauguration Day ceremony is irrelevant to the actual transfer of authority—in which Trump would also lose privileged modes of transportation such as the presidential Air Force One and his iconic, fortified limousine, the Beast.
"As of noon, January 2021, the Beast doesn't belong to him, AF1 doesn't belong to him, and the White House doesn't belong to him," former U.S. Navy intelligence and counter-terrorism specialist Malcolm Nance told Newsweek. The system is intentionally built to work independently of the whims of whoever happens to be in the White House at the time. ‘The transition process is automated. There is no 'do-it yourself' move,’ Nance said. ‘So, if he doesn't have a designated place, they'll decide for him. Basically, the systematic things will happen whether he's a willing participant or not.’
“Trump also loses his commander-in-chief status, meaning the Pentagon cannot and will not come to his aid should Biden be sworn in. ‘A POTUS becomes the commander-in-chief upon taking the presidential oath of office,’ a Pentagon spokesperson told Newsweek. ‘A former POTUS does not retain any authorities as they relate to the U.S. Armed Forces.’
“It's not the military's place to intervene, however. Like the former official Newsweek spoke to, Nance also indicated it would be the Secret Service to remove the president, physically if need be. ‘If he says he will not physically leave the White House, they will physically remove him,’ he added. ‘They may have to put hands on him to remove him. They may tell him if he doesn't make his flight, he may have to contract his own flight.’
“Such a scenario would be unprecedented. Of the 43 men who preceded Trump in the presidency, 35 have willingly ceded power either because their two-term limit expired, they lost an election or chose not to run again. Eight died and one quit.
“Trump managed to unwillingly make history last year by being only the third president to be impeached, but—like Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton before him—the Senate saved Trump from being ousted. Overstaying his Oval Office welcome after an election, however, would truly be unparalleled. ‘No sitting president has ever refused to leave office or vacate the White House in the course of American history,’ the White House Historical Association told Newsweek. Even if Trump managed to somehow vacate the vote itself, the outcome would likely be unfavorable for him. No avenue exists for him to prolong his administration nor appoint his deputy, Vice President Mike Pence. Rather, the first ever undetermined U.S. election would result in the third-in-line assuming the presidency. In this case, that's Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, an influential Democrat often targeted by Trump's rhetoric.
ReplyDelete“‘There is no constitutional provision to extend the term of office,’ the White House Historical Association said. ‘If no president has been chosen by January 20, 2021, then the statutory line of succession begins, which means the Speaker of the House ascends to the presidency. The Vice President's term similarly ends at noon on January 20.’
“Many outlets project Biden is most likely to pull through based on the current count, however, and Berggruen Institute Vice President of Programs Nils Gilman said he cannot see Trump participating in the formalities of his predecessors. ‘It's hard to imagine Trump graciously welcoming Biden to the White House on the morning of January 20th, then doing the traditional ride with him down Pennsylvania Avenue, then sitting behind him on the podium and politely clapping as Biden gets sworn in,’ Gilman told Newsweek. ‘Presiding over the ceremonial celebration of his own political failure doesn't seem at all in character.’
“Trump's absence, Gilman argued, would not only fuel more partisan bickering but also introduce dangerous new precedents for future leaders who potentially would not conceive of such a break in tradition. ‘This would indeed be yet another example of how Trump is systematically breaking the norms that make felicitous governance and cooperative policymaking possible—in this case by traducing the symbolic performance of the idea that the US government is a government of all Americans, not just the government of a single party,’ Gilman said.
“2020, a year defined by the COVID-19 pandemic, civil unrest and economic turmoil, has painfully demonstrated the limits of saying ‘never,’ and opened up an array of discourse on a number of doomsday scenarios. In fact, an incumbent Trump unwilling to walk away has already been imagined by Gilman and other experts concerned about the potential for a break in the United States' so far uninterrupted democracy…” (Newsweek, November 6).