What is a funded ratio?
Funded ratios measure
the portion of a retirement plan’s liabilities covered by assets. According to the Center for Retirement
Research at Boston College (CRR), “the funded ratio – plan assets divided by
the actuarial accrued liability – is a snapshot of the plan’s funding status at
a given moment in time.” To look at this
in another way, it would mean that a fully-funded retirement system would have
enough assets to pay all benefits earned to date to all of its members, both current
and retired.
Nevertheless, many
Illinois politicians (and business leaders who finance and then influence them)
believe a 100-percent funding is required even though an analysis of U.S. state
and local government pension obligations from Fitch Ratings (2011) stated that
a 70-percent funding ratio is adequate when based on a “rolling five-year average
of market value of assets.”
One CRR report (May
2011) found that on average state and local funded ratios are approximately 77
percent. An earlier CRR report (March 2011) claimed that most retirement
systems will remain sustainable until 2041, given a rate of return at eight
percent and consistent, actuarial-required contributions from both state and
public employees. (Illinois now has an 8-percent expected rate of return but
without any guarantee for fully funding the pensions). In view of this
aforementioned information, why are Illinois politicians and business leaders
adamant about a 100-percent funded ratio for public pensions?
To decrease the
funding ratio would mean the State’s contribution would increase for the
pension system’s plans, even though some state policymakers believe that
previous pension reform, Public Act 96-0889 or Senate Bill 1946 (the Two-Tier
System for new hires since 2011), will enable the State to reduce its contribution
“by $71 billion” (CoGFA). (Ironically SB
1946 passed on March 24, 2010 to prevent Illinois from being “viewed negatively
by the ratings agencies and the market as a whole,” which would have resulted
in lowered credit ratings and increased borrowing costs. The State of Illinois needed
$100 billion to avoid undesirable ratings and projected that SB 1946 would
allow the State to save $100 billion by 2045. Governor Quinn signed the bill
into law on April 14th).
What does the “Pension
Ramp” have to do with this discussion?
Public Act 88-593 (the
1995 Funding Law—“Pension Ramp”) requires the state-funded retirement systems in
Illinois to attain a 90-percent funding ratio by Fiscal Year 2045, and the Commission
on Government Forecasting and Accountability (CoGFA, 2011) claims that “any
decrease in the 90-percent funding ratio would adversely impact both the
State’s credit rating (resulting in higher costs to the State) and the State’s
ultimate ability to adequately fund its pension obligations.” (It is important to note, however, in May of
2010 only 15 states had a funded ratio over 70 percent; the average funding
ratio overall was 63 percent; the highest funding rate belonged to
Wisconsin at 88 percent) (Barclays Capital, 2011). We also know the so-called “Pension
Ramp” is a major cause of financial instability in Illinois, one that the state’s
policymakers refuse to address.
According to the Commission
on Government Forecasting and Accountability, “adhering to the pension funding
schedule set forth by Public Act 88-593 will continue to remain the most
significant fiscal challenge for the State of Illinois… The single largest
driver of the growth in the unfunded liabilities has been insufficient employer
contributions…, insufficient investment returns [and inflation], benefit
increases, changes in actuarial assumptions, and other miscellaneous demographic
factors” such as salary growth, retiree longevity, and the length of employee
service.
What does the Entry-age
Method used for determining actuarial accrued liability have to do with this discussion?
Moreover, in
determining actuarial accrued liability, the majority of states use an
entry-age method. As stated by the
Center for State and Local Government Excellence, “the entry-age method
recognizes a larger accumulated pension obligation for active employees than
the projected unit credit and generally requires larger annual contributions…
Sponsors that opt for the ‘cheaper’ funding regime – namely the projected unit
credit – may be less committed to funding their plans and, therefore, less
likely to make the full annual-required contribution.” Unfortunately, the State of Illinois uses the
projected-unit-credit method.
And what does asset smoothing
have to do with this discussion?
Add to this the fact that
Illinois has adopted asset smoothing (Senate Bill 1292 in 2011) to determine the
actuarial value of its plan assets. (The
asset smoothing method uses expected returns on the asset mix and averages both
past and anticipated asset values, generally over a period of five years). Now consider the 2008-09 market collapse
that significantly reduced the value of all retirement systems’ assets across
the country, and one can easily see that the past five years includes profound,
negative returns in the State’s assessment of its retirement systems!
Though the best
solutions, according to CoGFA for the current economic situation in Illinois,
are said to include lowering the assumed rate of investment return (the state
has lowered it) and keeping the funding ratio at 90 percent, this Commission also
maintains that unfunded plans “require contributions to pay for benefits that
are currently being accrued as well as to eliminate the shortfall between
assets and accrued liabilities.”
Three final notes: “According to the Congressional Budget Office, 80% is sufficient for public sector plans. Private sector plans require 100% because of concerns over bankruptcy or otherwise choosing to go out of business, concerns which do not pertain to the public sector. Yes, plan actuaries still set 100% as the goal because their sole concern is the pension system—they do not give a whit about the state’s responsibility to fund services, pay other debt or existing tax system, all of which matter” (Ralph M. Martire, Executive Director of Center for Tax and Budget Accountability).
Most states today (60% of them) are funded below 59%. Illinois’ funded ratio has never been above 70%. Furthermore, according to Alicia Munnell, Director of the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, the distribution of funded ratios for state and local pension plans in 2010 on average were the following: 12% of the state and local pension plans were funded between 35-59%; 48% were funded between 60-79%; 35% were funded between 80-99% and 5% were funded at 100+% (State and Local Pensions: What Now? 2012).
Though no
state public pension has to be fully funded (ever), had TRS been fully funded
by Illinois legislators throughout the decades, its funded ratio would have
been between 80 and 90% today!
(Most of this essay was originally posted on this blog in July 2011).
For more about lowering that funding
ratio: Click Here.
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