"Trump has no clue how to get out of the mess"

 

If it wasn’t clear before, it is undeniable now. President Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel started a war with Iran assuming that they would trigger quick and easy regime change. They vastly underestimated the staying power of Iran’s surviving leadership and its military capacity not only to inflict damage on Israel and America’s Arab allies but also to close off the most important oil and gas shipping lane in the world.

This is imposing serious harm on the global economy, including the U.S. stock market, and Trump has no clue how to get out of the mess that he has created by starting a war without thinking through the implications.

It is actually embarrassing to watch the American president flip-flopping around, from telling us that the surviving Iranian leaders have pretty much agreed to his every demand, that the war is close to being over and Trump won, to admitting that he has no idea how to get the Strait of Hormuz shipping lane out of Iran’s grip. 

If America’s Western allies, whom Trump never consulted before the war, won’t send their armies and navies to do the job for Trump, then it’s too bad for them, he says: We have all the oil we need. That is, unless Trump decides to “obliterate” — his favorite word — Iran’s industrial base and desalination plants until Iran says uncle.

In short, we are watching what happens when you put into the Oval Office an impulsive, unstable man who ran for president largely to get revenge on his political foes. Then he surrounded himself with a cabinet chosen for its handsome looks and its willingness to put loyalty to Trump over loyalty to the Constitution. 

Add to that Republican majorities in the House and Senate willing to write him blank checks, and it all eventually leads to sloppy, undisciplined decision-making, including starting a huge war in the Middle East with no plan for the morning after. Trump is a man-child playing with matches — the world’s most powerful military — in a gas-filled room. 

If all of that were not bad enough, we have a secretary of defense, Pete Hegseth, who holds extreme Christian nationalist beliefs and, last week, reportedly held a prayer session at the Pentagon in which he prayed for U.S. troops to deliver “overwhelming violence of action against those who deserve no mercy. … We ask these things with bold confidence in the mighty and powerful name of Jesus Christ.”

In other words, it’s now our religious warriors against Iran’s. If this were not the leadership of my own country — and if Iran were not, indeed, the most destabilizing force in the Middle East and its transformation not a worthy goal for its own people and its neighbors — I’d just sit back and watch the show, savoring the spectacle of Trump getting what he deserves. 

But it is my country. Iran going nuclear is a threat that could unleash nuclear proliferation all across the Middle East. And we are all going to get what Trump deserves.

What to do? Trump should set aside his 15-point peace plan — which would be ridiculously complicated to implement — and reduce it to two points: Iran gives up its more than 950 pounds of nearly bomb-grade highly enriched uranium, and in return the United States gives up on regime change. 

Both sides would then agree to end all hostilities. That is, no more American and Israeli bombing, no more Iranian and Hezbollah rockets, no more Strait of Hormuz blockade and, for darn sure, no U.S. ground troops landing in Iran.

“We have to realize that what the Iranian regime wants most is to stay in power, and what the United States and Israel want most is for Iran not to have a bomb,” said John Arquilla, a former professor of defense analysis at the Naval Postgraduate School and the author of the forthcoming book “The Troubled American Way of War.” “Both sides can get what they want most if they are ready to give up what they want second most.”

For America and Israel, second prize after eliminating Iran’s highly enriched uranium would be regime change. That doesn’t appear to be in the offing anymore, and Trump has already begun laying the groundwork for abandoning that objective. He told reporters on Sunday that given how the United States and Israel have now killed several dozens of Iran’s senior leaders, “it truly is regime change.” Iran’s leaders were “a whole different group of people,” who he said have “been very reasonable.”

Of course, this is ludicrous and a cover for the fact that the United States and Israel vastly overestimated their ability to topple Iran’s regime using air power alone.

The Trump team has reportedly been negotiating through Pakistan with the speaker of Iran’s parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who has strong ties to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, which appears to be the real power behind the scenes. The rump Iranian regime may well be ready to consider giving up its uranium in return for its survival. Yes, a million problems would remain unresolved, but that’s what happens when you try to use force without any long-term planning to solve a wicked problem.

Broadly speaking, a wicked problem is defined as a problem that resists quick fixes or permanent solutions. It involves numerous interdependent variables. Outcomes are never final, just better or worse, or good enough. Every wicked problem is essentially one of a kind, meaning there is no perfect, pre-existing template for solving one. And solutions often have irreversible consequences, meaning that you cannot easily undo a decision. That is about the best definition of the Iran problem that I can think of.

While he may have never spelled it out in so many words, if you look at President Barack Obama’s actions vis-à-vis Iran, he clearly understood that it was a wicked problem and therefore the wisest course of action was to focus on the core American interest, try to secure that and learn to live with the other features of the problem, mitigating them as best as possible.

That was the logic of Obama’s 2015 deal with Iran, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which put internationally verifiable limits on the country’s uranium enrichment program, and his decision to live with its growing ballistic missile arsenal and its cultivation of proxy militias in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Iraq — which did not threaten America.

Obama’s Iran deal worked as designed. When Obama left office, the curbs on Iran’s nuclear enrichment capacities — verified by international inspectors — meant that Iran, if it broke out of the deal, would require at least a year to produce enough fissile material for a nuclear warhead, providing plenty of time for the world to react.

Nevertheless, Trump, at the urging of Netanyahu, unilaterally withdrew the United States from the deal in 2018. But Trump never forged an effective alternative strategy to prevent Iran from securing enough uranium for a bomb. The Biden administration tried to clean up Trump’s mess but could not get Iran to agree.

When Trump came back to power, he again neglected to forge an alternative. So, Iran went from being a year away from a bomb under Obama’s nuclear deal to weeks away thanks to Trump’s reckless withdrawal from Obama’s strategy without an effective replacement strategy. And now with this war Trump has made it a really, really wicked problem.

It’s why we need to keep this as simple as possible. America should extend assurances that we will end the war, leave the regime in place, stop destroying Iran’s infrastructure and even offer some relief from oil sanctions, if Iran turns over all its near weapons-grade fissile material and halts all hostilities from its side. Everything else gets postponed for another day. (Meanwhile a much-weakened Iranian regime would have to be more responsive to its people.)

Trump will be a very lucky man if the surviving leaders of the Iranian regime say yes. It’s a measure of Trump’s incompetence that they now hold his fate in their hands.

Thomas L. Friedman is the foreign affairs Opinion columnist. He joined the paper in 1981 and has won three Pulitzer Prizes. He is the author of seven books, including “From Beirut to Jerusalem,” which won the National Book Award. @tomfriedman • Facebook

NY Times  

Photos at Dawn by Glen Brown

 

"Trump is under the gun to end his misbegotten war"

 

The “deadline” for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz or face destruction of its power plants works like Donald Trump’s “concept of a plan” on healthcare: it’s always two weeks away. Trump surprised no one with his decision Friday to extend the deadline (the second such postponement) until April 6. When that date arrives, Trump almost certainly will punt again. His ever-moving deadline strategy (on healthcare, tariffs, war, etc.) has become his predictable fallback when a pressure tactic (e.g., threats to bomb Iranian power plants or impose tariffs) proves impossible, too expensive, or just pointless.

The New York Times reported that the excuse Trump gave this time was “what he claimed was progress in talks to end the war.” There is no evidence that “talks,” direct or otherwise, have progressed. Savvy observers, including traders on U.S. markets, which reached new lows, rolled their eyes. Trump’s declaration that Iran is “begging” for a deal had all the telltale signs of projection. Trump’s deployment of ground troops — without congressional authorization or public support — suggests “talks” are not progressing much, if at all.

The Iranians understand Trump much better than anyone in the Trump regime (devoid of any Iranian experts) understands them. For decades, Iran has prepared meticulously for what to do if a U.S. president was daft enough to attack: Batten down the hatches, close the Strait of Hormuz, and fire away at Israel and the Gulf allies. Only an ignorant narcissist like Trump could be so willfully blind and ignorant enough to imagine he could wipe out an Iranian regime — ensconced for 47 years in regional warfare — with a few weeks of bombing.

Now, the Iranians can see that Trump is desperate to end the war quickly. (They know enough that Trump’s lie that he “doesn’t care” if a deal is reached actually means he ‘really, really wants a deal.’ The Iranians are watching U.S. financial markets, oil prices, and even Trump’s approval polls. They follow U.S. media reports on rumbling discontent in the MAGA movement. They therefore reasonably can conclude that Trump can be snookered into a deal remarkably accommodating to Iran.

Moreover, the Iranians may be in a stronger position than they would have been under prior U.S. presidents, thanks to asymmetric warfare (e.g., drones, cheaper missiles) that can readily inflict damage, depleting the defenses of more expensive interceptors.

Evidence abounds that Israel and the U.S. are swiftly depleting their supply of interceptors. It’s a matter of math: Iranian drones can be quickly and cheaply replaced; their opponents’ defenses are extremely expensive and limited in number. Israel has already begun to ration interceptors, leading to more direct hits on Israeli towns. 

On the U.S. side, the “military has fired more than 850 Tomahawk cruise missiles in four weeks of war with Iran, burning through the precision weapons at a rate that has alarmed some Pentagon officials and prompted internal discussions about how to make more available,” The Washington Post reports. 

The U.S. military is scrambling to find Tomahawks from other hot spots. This is what happens when impulsive, ignorant men — intoxicated with blowing things up — utterly bungle a war. “The dilemma has laid bare broader concerns in both the Pentagon and Congress about the Trump administration’s war in Iran, its shifting explanations for why the conflict is necessary, and the risks a shortage could pose to the United States as it balances the potential for future conflict in other parts of the world.”

In addition, Israel is coming up against manpower limitations. The Jerusalem Post reports: The IDF could soon collapse if there is no solution to the shortage of manpower, IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir warned in remarks during a security cabinet meeting held on Wednesday.

“I am raising 10 red flags before the IDF collapses into itself,” Zamir said during the cabinet meeting…. IDF sources also told the Post that there is tremendous concern due to the severe manpower shortage, especially amid the ongoing war.

After 2 ½ years of wars on multiple fronts and the Haredi conscription issue unresolved (i.e., approximately 66,000 ultra-religious men claim exemption from service), the IDF’s chief of staff’s warning spurred opposition parties to accuse Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of ignoring a looming disaster (a reference to the October 7 debacle) that could amount to “a major security crisis in the country.”

Thus, Trump is under the gun to end his misbegotten war — not only to stave off public anger over gas prices, but to stop the ticking clock counting down to the point at which Iran can penetrate defenses and inflict substantial damage and casualties on depleted U.S. and Israeli forces and munitions. In other words, time is on Iran’s side.

In addition to the limitation on the U.S. and Israel’s ability to wage war indefinitely, another factor may convince the Iranians to hold out for a very favorable deal: Trump’s ability to convince himself that an embarrassing failure is actually a roaring success. Self-delusion makes him an easy target for a lopsided deal when he hungers for the war’s end.

Trump’s predilection for self-deception may enable Iran to pull off a diplomatic coup that offers him empty, unenforceable promises (e.g., Iran won’t export terrorism, Iran won’t build a bomb) in exchange for very tangible benefits (e.g., no Israeli or Gulf attack, lifting of sanctions). Trump will trumpet Iran’s empty words (e.g., it has always denied it was building a bomb) without acknowledging that the war achieved very little at a huge cost.

Certainly, Iran has incentives to end the war. Its devastating domestic damage greatly worsens its pre-existing infrastructure problems (like insufficient water to sustain the population). The regime remains, but it is shaken and diminished. And although widespread domestic discontent may have gone to ground during the fighting, it remains a potent threat. Iran, therefore, cannot be entirely intransigent; it too wants to move on (if only to rebuild and sprint to the development of a bomb).

In sum, Trump did not get regime change or an unconditional surrender. His lack of strategy gave Iran advantages (e.g., control of the Strait of Hormuz, asymmetric missile/drone capacity) that neither he nor his yes men anticipated. He therefore flails about, desperately trying to end this debacle without total humiliation. Thanks to the considerable leverage Trump’s blunders have given them, the Iranians surely expect to avoid Trump’s most draconian demands. They want the war to end, but not at any price.

If only the U.S. had competent negotiators and a sane president, a deal might be reached soon. We don’t. Tragically, more lives will be lost, billions more spent before the war’s end.

 

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"The nighttime attack resulted in the deaths of two people and injuries to 12 others, including a nine-year-old boy"

Toys are scattered among the ruins of a house destroyed in Odesa on March 28, 2026. The nighttime attack resulted in the deaths of two people and injuries to 12 others, including a nine-year-old boy. Ukraine secures 10-year defense deals with Gulf states amid Iran war. "The first priority is weapons — their production, exchange of experience," President Volodymyr Zelensky said in Qatar. Russia surveilling US military assets in Middle East to aid Iran, Zelensky says. Russia took satellite photographs of the Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia the day before Iran launched an attack on the facility that injured 12 U.S. troops, Zelensky said. Zelensky responds to Rubio's accusation of lying. President Volodymyr Zelensky on March 28 clarified his understanding of Washington's position on security guarantees for Ukraine, in response to U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio calling his previous statement on the issue "a lie." Russia announces gasoline export ban as Ukrainian strikes hammer oil infrastructure. Russia will ban gasoline exports from April 1 in order to meet domestic demand, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced on March 27. Russians dubious as bomb shelters appear 1,000km from Ukraine. Local officials framed the move as a safety measure, but residents were less convinced. 'Explosion in production area' — Ukraine confirms Flamingo missiles hit explosives plant in Russia's Samara Oblast. The Flamingo missile, built by controversial defense manufacturer Fire Point, has only been used by Kyiv on a handful of occasions since being first unveiled last summer, with its reported use increasing since November 2025.

(Photo by Nina Liashonok/Ukrinform/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

Just Another Pathological Narcissistic Announcement

 

The U.S. Treasury announced Thursday that trump's signature will appear on all new American paper currency, a first for any sitting president in the nation's history. Starting with $100 bills in June, his name will replace the Treasurer's signature for the first time since 1861, erasing an unbroken 165-year tradition. That, apparently, was just another thing standing between trump and a mirror.

It gets worse. A federal arts panel, stacked with trump appointees, recently signed off on a 24-karat gold commemorative coin bearing his image, timed to America's 250th birthday. Here's the kicker: the people who spent years screaming about "trump derangement syndrome" have now branded the nation's entire currency supply with one man's face and autograph, which is about as deranged as it gets.

George Washington refused to appear on the first U.S. silver dollar specifically because putting a leader's face on money is what kings do. A member of the Citizens Coinage Advisory Committee said it plainly: only nations ruled by kings or dictators put a sitting ruler's image on their coins.

The administration calls this a patriotic tribute to the Semi-quincentennial. But trump has already plastered his name on the Kennedy Center, Navy battleships, and the U.S. Institute of Peace. The presidency, for trump, has always been less about governance and more about brand extension. The Founders warned us exactly what this would look like. Turns out they were right.

-The Other 98%

No Kings Day

 

Let us continue to rebel against his autocratic abuse of presidential power, his felonious behavior, his constitutional ignorance, his obstruction of justice and concealment, his lawless demagoguery, his pathological narcissism, his grandiose delusions, his anti-social personality disorder, his malignant arrogance, his moral relativism, his white nationalism, his perfidious nationalism, his hateful racism, his infectious nihilism, his outrageous iconoclasm, his ruthless competition, his puerile dereliction, his embarrassing stupidity, his provocative transgressions, his mocking disrespect, his impetuous vulgarity, his sexual predation; his belligerent intimidation, his incessant lying, his conspiratorial gaslighting, his obsessive vindictiveness, his hypocritical cowardice, his compulsive xenophobia, his callous misogyny, his insufferable bigotry, his disgusting buffoonery, his histrionic rallying, his sociopathic bullying, seditious behavior and dangerous fascism... .

-Glen Brown

Trump is "feeling 'bored' after starting a war that has killed thousands of people, created chaos across the Middle East, and raised prices for US consumers"

 

…In a social media post, Rep. Don Beyer (D-Va.) called the president “beyond despicable” for feeling “bored” after starting a war that has killed thousands of people, created chaos across the Middle East, and raised prices for US consumers.

“Donald Trump is now ‘a little bored’ with his ‘little excursion’ in Iran, as if war is nothing more than passing amusement to him,” said Beyer. “War is not a game. It’s not a spectacle. It’s not something you pick up and drop when it stops entertaining you.”

Beyer then highlighted the human costs of Trump’s war, which he launched at 4 a.m. on a Saturday morning without any authorization from Congress.

“Real people have paid the price of this war,” he wrote. “We’ve already lost 13 Americans killed in action, with many more seriously wounded. Civilians have been killed throughout the Middle East, including the US missile strike that killed more than 150 schoolchildren.”

Trump and allies such as Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) have signaled that after the US is finished with Iran, they will next attempt to topple the government of Cuba, where the White House has caused a catastrophic fuel shortage in recent weeks with its ramp-up of the blockade that’s been in place for decades. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said this month that “the embargo is tied to political change on the island.” […]

-Common Dreams