The billions of dollars the Saudi monarchy has gifted
President Donald Trump’s family have paid off.
Trump has caved to Saudi demands to provide the Kingdom precisely the nuclear
technology he says is a grave threat in Iranian hands.
In a new agreement signed on Wednesday, Trump agreed to
let the Saudis enrich uranium and reprocess plutonium, the two ingredients used
in nuclear bombs. The Saudis promise this will be used only for peaceful
purposes, but Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said as far back as 2018 that “without a doubt
if Iran developed a nuclear bomb, we would follow suit as soon as possible.”
Trump’s generosity to Saudi Arabia — which has numerous
lucrative deals in place with members of Trump’s
family, particularly the $2 billion the Saudis invested in Jared Kushner’s private equity fund — could unleash a
flood of new nuclear programs. If the Saudis get this technology, others will
demand it, too.
How we got here:
Ever since the dawn of the Nuclear Age, U.S. policy has denied the ability to enrich uranium and reprocess plutonium to other nations because it is a shortcut to nuclear weapons. The huge and expensive facilities can be developed openly and legally until a government takes the quick jump from making nuclear reactor fuel rods to making the cores of bombs. With this deal, Trump has effectively just greenlit a Saudi nuclear bomb program. That is why, in 1946, the Congress passed the Atomic Energy Act, prohibiting the sale or transfer of nuclear weapons technology to any nation, including our allies.
Trump has effectively just greenlit a Saudi nuclear
bomb program.
So, how did we get to the point where the United States in now willing to sell this technology to one of the most brutal dictatorships in the world? In 2013, the Saudis unveiled a plan to build as many as 16 civilian nuclear reactors. Nuclear reactor companies salivated at the prospect of contracts worth hundreds of billions of dollars.
But Saudi nuclear power reactors make little economic sense. Nuclear is the most expensive way to produce electricity, especially since Saudi Arabia sits on an ocean of oil and is ideally suited for much cheaper solar and wind energy production.
“When it comes to power generation, it’s 10 times more expensive than solar power because they are blessed with an unbelievable amount of sunshine,” Princeton scholar Bernard Haykel told “PBS News Hour.” “So, frankly, if you’re looking to generate power to liberate more oil from electricity generation, it makes much more sense to use a combination of solar, wind and gas, natural gas.” Still, if they just wanted to waste their money on reactors, it wouldn’t be a problem. But they want more. Much more.
Centrifuges for fuel = centrifuges for bombs:
Saudi Arabia wants the entire nuclear fuel cycle. They
want to make the fuel for the reactors, then reprocess the spent fuel rods when
they are used up. The same centrifuges that spin uranium gas to enrich it to
the low levels required for nuclear fuel can spin it to the high levels for the
cores of nuclear bombs. The same reprocessing plants that can break down used
fuel rods for waste disposal can separate out the reactor-produced plutonium in
those rods for use in nuclear bombs.
With these plants, Saudi Arabia would have both pathways to the bomb. The Hiroshima atomic bomb was made of uranium; the Nagasaki bomb, plutonium. That is why there are strict controls on these fuel-cycle technologies. It is these controls that Prince Salman wants the U.S. to waive, including strict inspections. Trump has agreed, dependent on whether a U.S.-Saudi study determines an enrichment facility would be warranted.
Saudi Arabia wants the entire nuclear fuel cycle.
Most countries with nuclear reactors do not have such
plants. They buy their fuel from the half-dozen or so countries and consortiums
that make it. Given the enormous construction and operating costs, it doesn’t
make economic sense for a country to produce its own fuel unless it has 20 or
more reactors. Saudi Arabia doesn’t yet have one. But it wants an enrichment
facility.
This is exactly the issue with Iran. The decades-long dispute has not been over the construction of an Iranian nuclear power reactor at Bushehr, but about Iran’s enrichment of uranium. Saudi Arabia wants to match that capability. To become a nuclear-threshold state. To have the capability to make the material for bombs should it decide to do so. Just like Iran.
The folly of thinking our allies can have nukes, but
our foes cannot:
The Saudis want the U.S. to give it a looser deal than
the one struck with its neighbor, the United Arab Emirates. In that case, the
U.S., under Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama, established the “gold standard” for nuclear cooperation. The UAE
promised that it would never enrich uranium or reprocess plutonium. The UAE now
has an operating power reactor at the Barakah
nuclear complex.
In capitulating to Saudi demands, Trump commits a
profound strategic error: believing this technology can be trusted in the hands
of friends while denied to foes. Even if the worst happens, he thinks it OK for
his friends to have nuclear bombs. As a presidential candidate in 2016, Trump told CNN that Japan and South Korea should have
their own nuclear weapons. Most pointedly, when asked if Saudi Arabia should
get nuclear weapons, he responded: “Saudi Arabia, absolutely.”
But when regimes change, the technology remains. Iran’s
path to nuclear capability began in the 1970s under Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi,
when the Nixon administration approved his plans for dozens of nuclear power
reactors and agreed that Iran could enrich uranium and even process plutonium.
The shah did not survive to implement his plans, and at first the Islamic Republic that replaced him rejected this “Western technology” but changed its mind during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, restarting the nuclear program, including secret efforts on bomb technology.
Even if the Saudi
monarchy does not build a bomb, will it still rule the nation in 20 years, when
the nuclear plants are fully operational? Will militant jihadists rule,
inheriting the bomb program Trump gifted his friend?
Nor is the risk just regime change. Israel, Pakistan,
India and North Korea all secretly and illegally began their bomb programs
using nuclear technology acquired for civilian use, in violation of numerous
bilateral and global agreements prohibiting these nations from doing just that.
When regimes change, the technology remains.
Is this a done deal? Not necessarily. In 2023, when President
Joe Biden tried for a “grand bargain” with Saudi Arabia that would
have traded nuclear technology and advanced weaponry for recognition of Israel,
liberals and conservatives united to eventually kill the deal.
Twenty senators wrote in opposition to the proposed Biden plan, and a
politically diverse group of nuclear proliferation experts and former officials
signed a letter organized by the right-leaning Foundation for Defense of
Democracy (FDD), a strong proponent for war with Iran. “Riyadh does not need
uranium enrichment to produce peaceful nuclear energy,” the letter argued, “Enrichment could bring Saudi Arabia to
the brink of acquiring nuclear arms, and U.S. policy should prohibit it.”
And there’s opposition from the same circles to Trump’s even more generous deal. “A bad U.S. nuclear deal
with Saudi Arabia is coming for congressional review,” wrote Andrea Stricker, deputy director and research fellow of the
FDD’s Nonproliferation Program, on Wednesday. “Congress should block it. If it
does not, one hopes the policy will be reversed by a subsequent administration
before too much damage is done.”
Stricker is right. The outcry over the deal forced Trump
to pledge on Thursday that the contracts would be conditioned on Saudi
recognition of Israel — similar to Biden’s deal but now highly improbable given
Israel’s destruction of Gaza and continued violence in the West Bank.
Does Trump even mean it? Or is it just something he said
to get through the day and quell opposition until he can push the deal through.
His Truth Social post contained another lie: that there would be no enrichment.
Of course there will be enrichment. That is the whole point of the deal.
Trump’s tangle of lies, his deep ignorance of the deal he approved then walked back, his inability to even make a binding agreement (see the memo of understanding with Iran, the Gaza Peace Plan, the tariffs, etc.) may sink the pact. But don’t count on it. Saudi influence in Washington is powerful, particularly with Trump and his business partners who could profit handsomely from the deal. It will take an all-out effort to block what will be the worst nuclear deal in history.
Rooted in Truth. Independent by Design: Your support helps ensure that rigorous reporting, thoughtful analysis, and investigative journalism remain accessible to everyone. Support independent journalism.






