Friday, January 17, 2025

President Biden's Final Address to the Nation

 


In his final address to the nation, President Joe Biden issued a warning that “an oligarchy is taking shape in America of extreme wealth, power, and influence that literally threatens our entire democracy, our basic rights and freedoms, and a fair shot for everyone to get ahead.”

It is not exactly news that there is dramatic economic inequality in the United States. Economists call the period from 1933 to 1981 the “Great Compression,” for it marked a time when business regulation, progressive taxation, strong unions, and a basic social safety net compressed both wealth and income levels in the United States. Every income group in the U.S. improved its economic standing.

That period ended in 1981, when the U.S. entered a period economists have dubbed the “Great Divergence.” Between 1981 and 2021, deregulation, tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations, the offshoring of manufacturing, and the weakening of unions moved $50 trillion from the bottom 90% of Americans to the top 1%.

Biden tried to address this growing inequality by bringing back manufacturing, fostering competition, increasing oversight of business, and shoring up the safety net by getting Congress to pass a law—the Inflation Reduction Act—that enabled Medicare to negotiate drug prices for seniors with the pharmaceutical industry, capping insulin at $35 for seniors, for example.

His policies worked, primarily by creating full employment which enabled those at the bottom of the economy to move to higher-paying jobs. During Biden’s term, the gap between the 90th income percentile and the 10th income percentile fell by 25%.

But Donald Trump convinced voters hurt by the inflation that stalked the country after the coronavirus pandemic shutdown that he would bring prices down and protect ordinary Americans from the Democratic “elite” that he said didn’t care about them. Then, as soon as he was elected, he turned for advice and support to one of the richest men in the world, Elon Musk, who had invested more than $250 million in Trump’s campaign.

Musk’s investment has paid off: Faiz Siddiqui and Trisha Thadani of the Washington Post reported that he made more than $170 billion in the weeks between the election and December 15.

Musk promptly became the face of the incoming administration, appearing everywhere with Trump, who put him and pharmaceutical entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy in charge of the so-called Department of Government Efficiency, where Musk vowed to cut $2 trillion out of the U.S. budget even if it inflicted “hardship” on the American people.

News broke earlier this week that Musk, who holds government contracts worth billions of dollars, is expected to have an office in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building adjacent to the White House. And the world’s two other richest men will be with Musk on the dais at Trump’s inauguration. Musk, Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, and Meta chief executive officer Mark Zuckerberg, who together are worth almost a trillion dollars, will be joined by other tech moguls, including the CEO of OpenAI, Sam Altman; the CEO of the social media platform TikTok, Shou Zi Chew; and the CEO of Google, Sundar Pichai.

At his confirmation hearing before the Senate Committee on Finance today, Trump’s nominee for Treasury Secretary, billionaire Scott Bessent, said that extending the 2017 Trump tax cuts was "the single most important economic issue of the day." But he said he did not support raising the federal minimum wage, which has been $7.25 since 2009 although 30 states and dozens of cities have raised the minimum wage in their jurisdictions.

There have been signs lately that the American people are unhappy about the increasing inequality in the U.S. On December 4, 2024, a young man shot the chief executive officer of the health insurance company UnitedHealthcare, which has been sued for turning its claims department over to an artificial intelligence program with an error rate of 90% and which a Federal Trade Commission report earlier this week found overcharged cancer patients by more than 1,000% for life-saving drugs. Americans championed the alleged killer.

It is a truism in American history that those interested in garnering wealth and power use culture wars to obscure class struggles. But in key moments, Americans recognized that the rise of a small group of people—usually men—who were commandeering the United States government was a perversion of democracy.

In the 1850s, the expansion of the past two decades into the new lands of the Southeast had permitted the rise of a group of spectacularly wealthy men. Abraham Lincoln helped to organize westerners against a government takeover by elite southern enslavers who argued that society advanced most efficiently when the capital produced by workers flowed to the top of society, where a few men would use it to develop the country for everyone. Lincoln warned that “crowned-kings, money-kings, and land-kings” would crush independent men, and he created a government that worked for ordinary men, a government “of the people, by the people, for the people.”

A generation later, when industrialization disrupted the country as westward expansion had before, the so-called robber barons bent the government to their own purposes. Men like steel baron Andrew Carnegie explained that “[t]he best interests of the race are promoted” by an industrial system, “which inevitably gives wealth to the few.”

But President Grover Cleveland warned: “The gulf between employers and the employed is constantly widening, and classes are rapidly forming, one comprising the very rich and powerful, while in another are found the toiling poor…. Corporations, which should be the carefully restrained creatures of the law and the servants of the people, are fast becoming the people's masters.”

Republican president Theodore Roosevelt tried to soften the hard edges of industrialization by urging robber barons to moderate their behavior. When they ignored him, he turned finally to calling out the “malefactors of great wealth,” noting that “there is no individual and no corporation so powerful that he or it stands above the possibility of punishment under the law.

Our aim is to try to do something effective; our purpose is to stamp out the evil; we shall seek to find the most effective device for this purpose; and we shall then use it, whether the device can be found in existing law or must be supplied by legislation. Moreover, when we thus take action against the wealth which works iniquity, we are acting in the interest of every man of property who acts decently and fairly by his fellows.”

Theodore Roosevelt helped to launch the Progressive Era.

But that moment passed, and in the 1930s, Franklin Delano Roosevelt, too, contended with wealthy men determined to retain control over the federal government. Running for reelection in 1936, he told a crowd at Madison Square Garden: “For nearly four years you have had an Administration which instead of twirling its thumbs has rolled up its sleeves….

We had to struggle with the old enemies of peace—business and financial monopoly, speculation, reckless banking, class antagonism, sectionalism, war profiteering. They had begun to consider the Government of the United States as a mere appendage to their own affairs. We know now that Government by organized money is just as dangerous as Government by organized mob.”

“Never before in all our history have these forces been so united against one candidate as they stand today,” he said. “They are unanimous in their hate for me—and I welcome their hatred.”

Last night, after President Biden’s warning, Google searches for the meaning of the word “oligarchy” spiked.

—Heather Cox Richardson

 

Thursday, January 16, 2025

President Biden warns of the rise of a new American "oligarchy"

 


President Joe Biden used his final address from the Oval Office to deliver a somber warning about the threat posed by the “dangerous concentration of power” in the hands of wealthy and well-connected individuals, a thinly veiled reference to billionaire technology executives who have been increasingly signaling their desire to work closely with President-elect Donald Trump.

“Today, an oligarchy is taking shape in America of extreme wealth, power and influence that literally threatens our entire democracy, our basic rights and freedoms, and a fair shot for everyone to get ahead,” Biden said during his farewell speech, days before he steps down from a four-year presidency and a lifetime in public office. “We see the consequences all across America, and we’ve seen it before.”

Biden likened the current crop of tech moguls to the “robber barons” of the 19th century, men like John D. Rockefeller and Andrew Carnegie. Recalling President Dwight D. Eisenhower’s farewell address warning about the military-industrial complex, Biden decried a “tech-industrial complex that could pose real dangers to our country.”

The stark comparisons underscored how a president who has often heralded the “possibilities” afforded by America and proclaimed himself an enduring optimist is ending a 50-year career in public service with deep concerns that the nation’s promise is being eroded by its wealthiest citizens. Biden spoke from a storied location that in five days is to be occupied by Biden’s major political adversary, a man he has described as a threat to democracy and unfit for the presidency.

Tech executives have been visiting and dining with Trump at his Mar-a-Lago estate and donating millions to his inaugural committee. Tech moguls Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg are planning to attend Trump’s inauguration Monday, with prime seating on the dais that illustrates deepening ties between the nation’s top technology leaders and the incoming administration. (Bezos, the founder of Amazon, owns The Washington Post.)

Biden’s speech capped a career in which he experienced tragedy and triumph while scaling the heights of political power. His dark tone aligned with the humbling note on which Biden’s career is ending, as his political nemesis surges back into power and pledges to take a wrecking ball to much of Biden’s legacy…

The Washington Post, by Toluse Olorunnipa  and Cleve R. Wootson Jr.


Wednesday, January 15, 2025

"It’s a stark warning about what is coming" -Joyce Vance


We have now seen Volume 1 of Jack Smith’s report, released just after midnight when Judge Aileen Cannon’s order prohibiting DOJ from making it public lapsed. We already knew a lot of the information in Volume 1, which covered the January 6/election fraud case Smith charged Donald Trump with in Washington, D.C. We know less about the classified documents case, which is memorialized in Volume 2 of the Special Counsel’s report, including what Trump’s motivation for keeping classified materials in the first place and then lying to prosecutors about it was.

Volume 2 wasn’t released because there is still a pending case against Trump’s two former co-defendants, Walt Nauta and Carlos De Oliveira—sort of. Judge Cannon dismissed the case, and it’s on appeal to the Eleventh Circuit.

The only thing that seems clear about the case is that it will never go to trial. Once Donald Trump is back in the White House, his Justice Department can dismiss it, or Trump can pardon the defendants. As sensitive as Trump is about releasing the report, there is no way he will permit a full trial, with witnesses testifying to what they know, in this matter.

Given the case’s inevitable fate, why won’t Merrick Garland just dismiss it now, so he can release Volume 2? Maybe he still will. There is little reason not to. Although there is grand jury and possibly classified information in the report that would need to be redacted, it would serve the truth-telling function of the criminal justice system.

There will be no punishment for defendant Trump in the federal cases. He will not be deterred, not will others, by two failed prosecutions. He will not be incapacitated so he can do no further harm. So all that is left is releasing the report so the public can get some semblance of the facts, not conjecture, but evidence. It would be uniquely ironic if the Special Counsel’s report on this case, alone, out of all of the special counsel matters—Mueller, Durham, Hur, Weiss, and so on—remained unreleased.

The issue pending before the Eleventh Circuit, whether Judge Aileen Cannon was correct when she concluded that the Special Counsel statute Jack Smith was appointed under is unconstitutional, is an important one. Because Cannon is the lone Judge to rule that it is not, the Solicitor General would undoubtedly like to pursue the appeal in hopes that decision can be reversed.

But as a practical matter, the time for that has come and gone. Instinctively, no prosecutor wants to dismiss the appeal in what should be a viable prosecution. But the moment calls for more than traditional institutionalism. We are past due for an infusion of a new kind of institutionalism—a forward leaning variety that speaks to the moment and takes the challenge Donald Trump brings to the rule of law head on.

In his cover letter to the Attorney General, sent over with the report, Jack Smith quoted Attorney General Edward H. Levi, who, he noted, “assumed the Department's helm in the wake of Watergate, summed up those traditions best: ‘[O]ne paramount concern must always guide our way.

This is the keeping of the faith in the essential decency and even-handedness in the law, a faith which is the strength of the law, and which must be continually renewed or else it is lost. In a society that too easily accepts the notion that everything can be manipulated, it is important to make clear that the administration of federal justice seeks to be impartial and fair ....’”

It is hard to preserve public confidence in the rule of law after the last eight years. But Smith seemed to be appealing to an idea we’ve touched on frequently—not letting Donald Trump drag everyone else down to his level. In that regard, even if they didn’t get to take their cases to trial, Smith believes his team succeeded. Many people have lost confidence in the sine qua non of our democracy, that no man is above the law.

Smith wrote, “That is also why, in my decision-making, I heeded the imperative that ‘[n]o man in this country is so high that he is above the law.’” In Smith’s view, as he related his team’s work, this principle was of primary importance as they pursued the case, more than Trump’s ultimate fate. It’s a very different take. Trump may have made a mockery of the system, but in Smith’s view, prosecutors treated him like everyone else and that counts for something. It was the Supreme Court and ultimately the voting public that failed, not the prosecution.

I suspect many of you will be skeptics, and that we will be rereading this transmittal letter and discussing it for some time. My co-host on the Insider Podcast, Preet Bharara, pointed out this morning that the letter reads like an opening statement at a congressional hearing, with Smith already defending the integrity of his team and their work.

But it is worth contemplating the spirit of a team of prosecutors who, in the face of a powerful man who publicly taunted them and even threatened to prosecute some of them, continued to do their jobs and remained committed to the idea that we can still be a viable rule of law country if enough of us remain insistent on that path.

That’s what it comes to down to at this point. Courage and vision and refusing to give up in the face of a would-be authoritarian.

Trump, of course, had a take on Truth Social: “Deranged Jack Smith was unable to successfully prosecute the Political Opponent of his ‘boss,’ Crooked Joe Biden, so he ends up writing yet another ‘Report’ based on information that the Unselect Committee of Political Hacks and Thugs ILLEGALLY DESTROYED AND DELETED, because it showed how totally innocent I was, and how completely guilty Nancy Pelosi, and others, were. Jack is a lamebrain prosecutor who was unable to get his case tried before the Election, which I won in a landslide. THE VOTERS HAVE SPOKEN!!!”

Trump’s view seems to be that he and his lawyers were playing a game, and the only goal was to outflank prosecutors. How very Roy Cohn of him. Not about justice. Not about the American people. Yes, criminal defendants are entitled to vigorous representation from their lawyers. But Trump is a former president who took an oath to uphold the Constitution and serve the American people.

Here, as he reembarks on the presidency, the best he can muster is to deride Jack Smith for being “unable to successfully prosecute the Political Opponent of his ‘boss,” engaging in schoolboy level taunting. But it’s worse than just a taunt, because Trump is confirming that in his view, presidents can direct prosecutors to go after their political opponents and prosecutions who don’t pull it off are objects of derision. Not justice, just politics, and dirty politics at that.

Jack Smith didn’t get his cases to trial. Our democracy would be better off if he could have. A jury should have decided these cases. Ultimately, the Supreme Court and Judge Cannon will have much to answer for when we see what path a president who conflates politics and the rule of law puts the country on.

It’s a stark warning about what is coming.

It has become popular for people to say, as they did in 2016, “it won’t be as bad as everyone said.” I’ve heard so many variations on this. People who are counting on Trump’s ineptitude or Americans’ lack of willingness to go along with extreme measures like mass deportations.

Then there was Pete Hegseth’s confirmation hearing to be Secretary of Defense today. If Jack Smith’s report is the past, it is the future.

Yesterday evening, NBC reported that Hegseth’s FBI background check did not include interviews with his ex-wives or with the woman who accused him of sexual assault—which he denies—in a hotel room in 2017. Shades of the investigation that was (or wasn’t) conducted during Justice Kavanaugh’s confirmation hearing. That’s some big stuff to leave out. Makes you wonder what else is missing and how the Senate can advise and consent if it isn’t first willing to learn the facts.

“I just want to emphasize there’s already ample and abundant information on the public record that shows Peter Hegseth lacks the character and confidence to be secretary of defense,” Connecticut Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal said, according to the report. “There has never been a nominee for this position as unqualified as he is by virtue of financial mismanagement, as well as sexual impropriety and alcohol.”

In today’s hearing, Democratic Senators were on target, revealing the nominee’s lack of experience and character. It’s unlikely to impact Hegseth’s eventual confirmation, but it will make for some interesting finger pointing about who knew what when he implodes.

Senator Warren pushed him to explain his sudden change of heart about the role of women in combat after he was nominated. Senator Angus King questioned Hegseth about views that suggest he doesn’t believe in the Geneva Convention and got an entirely unsatisfactory response. Senators Tim Kaine and Elissa Slotkin were polite but persistent, and their questions about Hegseth’s personal life and professional qualifications and his lackluster answers likely would have been enough to end any other candidacy.

Hegseth claimed every allegation he was drunk or abused women was anonymous and not true. When it was Republicans’ turn, Senator’s like Oklahoma’s Markwayne Mullin excused— “he’s saved”—and even embraced—I’m not in prison because “my wife loved me too”—Hegseth’s alleged misconduct. 

Saturday Night Live really couldn’t have done it any better, with Mullin asking Hegseth to tell the Senate what he loved about his wife, who was sitting behind him. Hegseth came up with, “She's the smartest, most capable, loving, humble, honest person I've ever met. And in addition to being incredibly beautiful.” He had to be prodded to compliment her for being “an amazing mother … of our blended family of seven kids.”

A suitable metaphor for what America under Trump 2.0 is going to look like.

We’re in this together,

Joyce Vance

 

Tuesday, January 14, 2025

"Special counsel Jack Smith’s report gives new insights into the investigative process, challenges his team faced and the reasoning that guided their decisions"

 


Smith believes Trump would have been convicted at trial

Smith argues that the only reason Trump didn’t receive a guilty verdict is because he was elected president and the Justice Department had to therefore drop the case. There was no way around department guidance that prevents the prosecution of a sitting president, Smith wrote.

He acknowledged that the Supreme Court decision expanding the scope of presidential immunity forced him to chip away at some allegations in the indictment. But he said prosecutors are nevertheless confident that they had ample evidence to convince a jury that Trump was guilty of the charges he faced.

“While we were not able to bring the cases we charged to trial, I believe the fact that our team stood up for the rule of law matters,” Smith wrote in a letter to Attorney General Merrick Garland that accompanied the report. “I believe the example our team set for others to fight for justice without regard for the personal costs matters.”


Prosecutors considered charging Trump with inciting insurrection — but didn’t

When the election-interference indictment was first unsealed in 2023, Smith’s team received criticism from some quarters for not charging Trump with incitement to insurrection — a crime that could have prevented him from again seeking elected office had he been convicted.

In his report, Smith revealed that his team had considered pursuing such a charge and believed they’d amassed some evidence to support it.

They ultimately chose not to, however, deeming such a prosecution too risky and believing the other charges they’d lodged against Trump to be sufficient. The insurrection statute, which dates to the period after the Civil War, had not been used to prosecute anyone in more than 100 years and was untested in modern criminal courts, the report said. Prosecutors would also have had to rely on a novel interpretation of that law to match their accusations against Trump.

“The Office did not find any case in which a criminal defendant was charged with insurrection for acting within the government to maintain power, as opposed to overthrowing it or thwarting it from the outside,” the report said.


Smith blames Trump for the deadly Jan. 6, 2021, riot

Prosecutors still blame Trump for the violence at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. The report details the violence and trauma that law enforcement, lawmakers and staffers endured that day, citing police officers who fought the mob and rioters who were charged and said they stormed the Capitol at Trump’s behest.

“After January 6, when rioters began to face accountability for their unlawful acts at the Capitol, many pointed to Mr. Trump in an attempt to excuse or mitigate their conduct,” the report reads.

“For example, following his arrest on charges stemming from the Capitol siege, rioter Alex Harkrider sought release from pretrial detention by arguing that ‘[l]ike thousands of others [at the Capitol], Mr. Harkrider was responding to the entreaties of the then Commander-in-Chief, former President Donald Trump.’”

Other co-conspirators could have faced charges

Trump’s 2023 indictment described six unnamed co-conspirators — figures such as attorneys Rudy Giuliani, Sidney Powell and John Eastman — and accused them of aiding the defeated president in his efforts to subvert the election results.

In his report Tuesday, the special counsel said his office received an early authorization from the Justice Department to pursue charges against some of those Trump allies but had not made any final decisions before Trump’s election victory in November brought their case to an end.

The alleged co-conspirators could still be prosecuted and would not be shielded under the Justice Department policy that prohibits the prosecution of sitting presidents. However, it is exceedingly unlikely that Trump’s Justice Department — which he hopes will be led by some of the same defense attorneys who defended him in the election-interference case — would choose to pursue charges against anyone based on Smith’s findings.

Smith said his report “should not be read to allege that any particular person other than Mr. Trump committed a crime, nor should it be read to exonerate any particular person.”


Trump’s claims of political bias deemed ‘laughable’

Smith used his report to vigorously defend his team against years of attacks from Trump and his allies, who repeatedly accused prosecutors of political motivations in bringing the case.

“To all who know me well,” Smith wrote in a Jan. 7 letter to Garland that was released with his report, “the claim from Mr. Trump that my decisions as a prosecutor were influenced or directed by the Biden administration or other political actors is, in a word, laughable.”

Until now, the special counsel had remained largely silent in the face of Trump’s broadsides, reserving any response for legal filings and arguments before a judge. However, in his letter to Garland, Smith — a former war crimes and public corruption prosecutor — robustly defended his work.

Trump’s crimes were “unprecedented,” Smith wrote, and prosecuting him for them served the best interests of the nation.

AG Garland rushed to get the report out before he leaves office

Garland appointed three special counsels and released four reports during his tenure. (One, detailing the special counsel’s investigation into President Joe Biden’s son, Hunter, was made public hours before the Smith report posted online.) Garland is considered a cautious and by-the-books attorney general and, before this week, held news conferences announcing the appointment of each of the special counsels and the release of each of their reports.

But with the Smith report, Garland was up against the clock, and he made it public in the middle of the night.

Trump had been trying to convince the courts to block the report’s release, questioning its legitimacy and arguing that it would interfere with his presidential transition. Two courts turned him down.

If a judge or panel of judges had agreed to delay the release any longer — or Trump had pursued other legal avenues — the battle could have pushed past Monday’s inauguration. As soon as a court order that barred the report’s release lapsed, Garland submitted the material to members of Congress and posted it online with little fanfare just before 1 a.m.

A second volume of the report detailing Smith’s findings in Trump’s classified documents case will remain under wraps for now, because of ongoing litigation against Trump’s former co-defendants in the case.

Garland wants to transmit the report to select leaders in Congress if they agree not to make it public, but a judge has blocked him from doing so pending a court hearing Friday. By the time the judge rules, it could be too late for Garland, falling to Trump’s Justice Department to decide what do with the report.

-The Washington Post, Perry Stein and Jeremy Roebuck

 

"We recognize this is a threat not only to our democracy but to our dynamic, vibrant economy that remains the envy of the world"

 


The incoming Trump administration is working to put its agenda into place. Although experts on the National Security Council usually carry over from one administration to the next, Aamer Madhani and Zeke Miller of the Associated Press today reported that incoming officials for the Trump administration are interviewing career senior officials on the National Security Council about their political contributions, how they voted in 2024, and whether they are loyal to Trump.

Most of them are on loan from the State Department, the Federal Bureau of Investigation, and the Central Intelligence Agency and, understanding that they are about to be fired, have packed up their desks to head back to their home agencies.

The National Security Council is the main forum for the president to hash out decisions in national security and foreign policy, and the people on it are picked for their expertise. But Trump’s expected pick to become his national security advisor—his primary advisor on all national security issues—Representative Mike Waltz (R-FL) told right-wing Breitbart News that he wants to staff the NSC with people who are “100 percent aligned with the president’s agenda.”

Ranking member of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee Representative Gerry Connolly (D-VA) warned that the loyalty purge “threatens our national security and our ability to respond quickly and effectively to the ongoing and very real global threats in a dangerous world.”

But during Trump’s first term, it was Alexander Vindman, who was detailed to the NSC, and his twin Eugene Vindman, who was serving the NSC as an ethics lawyer, who reported concerns about Trump’s July 2019 call to Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelensky to their superiors. This launched the investigation that became Trump’s first impeachment, and Trump appears anxious to make sure future NSC members will be fiercely loyal to him.

With extraordinarily slim majorities in the House and Senate, Republicans are talking about pushing through their entire agenda through Congress as a single bill in the process known as budget reconciliation.

Budget reconciliation, which deals with matters related to spending, revenue, and the debt limit, is one of the few things that cannot be filibustered, meaning that Republicans could get a reconciliation bill through the Senate with just 50 votes. If they can hold their conference together, they could get the package through despite Democratic opposition.

House speaker Mike Johnson and Republican leaders have said that the House intends to pass a reconciliation bill that covers border security, defense spending, the extension of Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, spending cuts to social welfare programs, energy deregulation, and an increase in the national debt limit.

But Li Zhou of Vox points out that it’s not quite as simple as it sounds to get everything at once, because budget reconciliation measures are not supposed to include anything that doesn’t relate to the budget, and the Senate parliamentarian will advise stripping those things out.

In addition, the budget cuts Republicans are circulating include cuts to popular programs like Medicaid, the Affordable Care Act (more commonly known as Obamacare), the Inflation Reduction Act’s investment in combating climate change, and the supplemental nutrition programs formerly known as food stamps.

Still, a lot can be done under budget reconciliation. Democrats under Biden passed the 2021 American Rescue Plan and the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act under reconciliation, and Republicans under Trump passed the 2017 Trump tax cuts the same way.

A wrinkle in those plans is the Republicans’ hope to raise the national debt limit. As soon as they take control of Congress and the White House, Republicans will have to deal immediately with the treasury running up against the debt limit, a holdover from World War I that sets a limit on how much the country can borrow.

Although he has complained bitterly about spending under Biden, Trump has demanded that Congress either raise or abandon the debt ceiling because the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates that the tax cuts he wants to extend will add $4.6 trillion to the deficit over the next ten years, and cost estimates for his deportation plans range from $88 billion to $315 billion a year.

Republicans are backing away from adding a debt increase to the budget reconciliation package out of concern that members of the far-right Freedom Caucus will kill the entire bill if they do. Those members want no part of raising the national debt and have demanded $2 trillion in budget cuts before they will consider it.

Tonight, Senate majority leader John Thune (R-SD) told Jordain Carney of Politico that Senate Republicans expect the debt limit to be stripped out of the budget reconciliation measure.

So Republicans are currently exploring the idea of leveraging aid to California for the deadly fires in order to get Democrats to sign on to raising the debt ceiling. Meredith Lee Hill of Politico reported that Trump met with a group of influential House Republicans over dinner Sunday night at Mar-a-Lago to discuss tying aid for the wildfires to raising the debt ceiling. Today, House speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) confirmed to reporter Hill that this plan is under discussion.

Indeed, Republicans have been in the media suggesting that disaster aid to Democratic states should be tied to their adopting Republican policies. The Los Angeles fires have now claimed at least 24 lives. More than 15,000 firefighters are working to extinguish the wildfires, which have been driven by Santa Ana winds of up to 98 miles (158 km) an hour over ground scorched by high temperatures and low rainfall since last May, conditions caused by climate change.

On the Fox News Channel today, Representative Zach Nunn (R-IA) said: "We will certainly help those thousands of homes and families who have been devastated, but we also expect you to change bad behavior. We should look at the same for these blue states who have run away with a broken tax policy....

Those governors need to change their tune now.” Senator Ron Johnson (R-WI) blamed Democrats for the fires and said of federal disaster relief: “I certainly wouldn't vote for anything unless we see a dramatic change in how they're gonna be handling these things in the future.”

Aside from the morality of demanding concessions for disaster aid after President Joe Biden responded with full and unconditional support for regions hit by Hurricane Helene (although Tennessee governor Bill Lee is still lying that Biden delayed aid to his state, when in fact he delayed in asking for it, as required by law), there is a financial problem with this argument. As economist Paul Krugman noted today in his Krugman Wonks Out, California “is literally subsidizing the rest of the United States, red states in particular, through the federal budget.”

In 2022, the most recent year for which information is available, California paid $83 billion more to the federal government than it got back. Washington state also subsidized the rest of the country, as did most of the Northeast. That money flowed to Republican-dominated states, which contributed far less to the federal government than they received in return.

Krugman noted that “if West Virginia were a country, it would in effect be receiving foreign aid equal to more than 20 percent of its G[ross] D[omestic] P[roduct].” Krugman refers to the federal government as “an insurance company with an army,” and he notes that there is “nothing either the city or the state could have done to prevent” the wildfires.

“If the United States of America doesn’t take care of its own citizens, wherever they live and whatever their politics, we should drop “United” from our name,” he writes. “As it happens, however, California—a major driver of U.S. prosperity and power—definitely has earned the right to receive help during a crisis.”

Today, Biden announced student loan forgiveness for another 150,000 borrowers, bringing the total number of people relieved of student debt to more than 5 million borrowers, who have received $183.6 billion in relief. This has been achieved through making sure existing debt relief programs were followed, as they had not been in the past.

Establishment Republicans continue to fight MAGA Republicans, and MAGA fights among itself: former Trump ally Steve Bannon yesterday called Trump’s sidekick Elon Musk “truly evil” and vowed to “take this guy down.” But even as their enablers in the legacy media are normalizing Republican behavior, a reality-based media is stepping up to counter the disinformation.

Aside from the many independent outlets that have held MAGA Republicans to account, MSNBC today announced that progressive journalist Rachel Maddow will return to hosting a nightly one-hour show for the first 100 days of the Trump presidency.

And today journalist Jennifer Rubin joined her colleagues who have abandoned the Washington Post as it swung toward Trump. She resigned from the Washington Post with the announcement that she and former White House ethics lawyer Norm Eisen have started a new media outlet called The Contrarian. Joining them is a gold-star list of journalists and commentators who have stood against the rise of Trump and the MAGA Republicans, many of whom have left publications as those outlets moved rightward.

“Corporate and billionaire owners of major media outlets have betrayed their audiences’ loyalty and sabotaged journalism’s sacred mission—defending, protecting and advancing democracy,” Rubin wrote in her resignation announcement. In contrast, the new publication “will be a central hub for unvarnished, unbowed, and uncompromising reported opinion and analysis that exists in opposition to the authoritarian threat.”

“The urgency of the task before us cannot be overstated,” The Contrarian’s mission statement read. “We have already entered the era of oligarchy—rule by a narrow clique of powerful men (almost exclusively men). We have little doubt that billionaires will dominate the Trump regime, shape policy, engage in massive self-dealing, and seek to quash dissent and competition in government and the private sector. As believers in free markets subject to reasonable regulation and economic opportunity for all, we recognize this is a threat not only to our democracy but to our dynamic, vibrant economy that remains the envy of the world.”

In what appears to be a rebuke to media outlets that are cozying up to Trump, The Contrarian’s credo is “Not Owned by Anybody.”

—Heather Cox Richardson

 

Friday, January 10, 2025

TikTok

 


The Supreme Court heard oral arguments Friday in a high-stakes case reviewing a federal law that would effectively shut down TikTok in the United States in less than two weeks if the company does not divest from Chinese ownership.

After roughly 2½ hours of arguments over the law, the justices appeared likely to uphold it.

Attorneys for TikTok, its parent company ByteDance and content creators argued that the ban-or-sale law would be a sweeping violation of free speech protections for the platform’s more than 170 million users in the United States.

TikTok lawyer Noel Francisco said it could also open the door to a dangerous form of censorship. He added that “we shut down” if the law goes into effect, although other legal experts dispute that contention.

Solicitor General Elizabeth B. Prelogar countered that TikTok is a glaring national security threat that could be used by China to harvest data from millions of Americans, manipulate them or even blackmail them.

The law is set to take effect Jan. 19, unless the Supreme Court acts to block it.

Key updates:

-The Washington Post


Wildfires & the Felon

 


Los Angeles officials expect the death toll from the wildfires in the county to continue to rise, as workers comb through incinerated neighborhoods with cadaver dogs.

Nearly 180,000 people have been evacuated and at least 10 have been killed in the fast-moving fires that have torn through the county, propelled by hurricane-force winds. The burnt areas now cover more than 12,000 hectares (30,000 acres), with about 10,000 structures charred by the two biggest blazes. Meanwhile, Santa Monica declared a curfew because of looting, officials said, with at least 20 arrests made.

After briefly easing on Thursday, the gales were expected to intensify again in the evening and into Friday. Even as officials expressed cautious optimism that the Sunset fire in the Hollywood Hills was now under control, a new fire, the Kenneth fire, erupted on Thursday afternoon in the San Fernando valley, triggering evacuation orders.

  • How big are the fires? The Palisades fire is 8,085 hectares and just 6% contained; Eaton is 5,540 hectares and not contained at all; Kenneth is 405 hectares and 35% contained; Hurst, 312 hectares and 37%; Lidia, 141 hectares and 60%.

 


Donald Trump will be sentenced on Friday in his New York hush-money case. He is the first US president – former or sitting – to have faced a criminal trial, let alone a conviction and sentencing.

Despite the unprecedented guilty verdict, Trump appears unlikely to face the force of the law. The judge presiding over his case, Juan Merchan, has strongly hinted that Trump will not be punished for committing 34 felony counts in an effort to influence the 2016 election.

  • Why is he unlikely to be jailed or fined? In July, a US supreme court ruling granted presidents broad immunity from criminal prosecution for official acts. Merchan said that in weighing all the factors and concerns about presidential immunity, a sentence of “unconditional discharge appears to be the most viable solution”. That means that apart from being named a convicted felon, Trump won’t face any penalty.

-The Guardian